QB Rating by Year

[Kozure]

One of the things I like is that you can now pretty much go with a all pass offense and be successful as long as you do a good job of mixing up the short and long passes. If you use screen passes and very short passes to replace your short running game, you can easily pass it 80 percent of the time over the course of a season and complete 60-65 percent of your passes.

There have been a few seasons I've tested where my QB has only completed 58 percent of passes or so, but I'm still tweaking the offense quiet a bit to see if I can ensure efficiency. You definitely need a group of 4 very good receivers do to this. If not, it won't work as well enough to use. And I've noticed using this offense on the road gets much worse results, but it doesn't mean it shouldn't be used on the road. It just needs to be reeled in a bit.

[Hell Atlantic]

So, without running it a bunch of times, I think it's fairly safe to say that talent level can make an 8 to 12 point difference from the norm in QB rating, and cohesion can account for roughly half of that.

huh? ummmm, you needed to run tests to figure out that when there's a higher overall level of talent it will positively affect QB rating? uhhhhhh, you think maybe there's a reason why Tom Brady broke numerous QB records this season and the Dolphins have gone through 7 QB changes in the last 2 years?

what's next? Lance Bass is gay?

[SkyDog]

huh? ummmm, you needed to run tests to figure out that when there's a higher overall level of talent it will positively affect QB rating? uhhhhhh, you think maybe there's a reason why Tom Brady broke numerous QB records this season and the Dolphins have gone through 7 QB changes in the last 2 years?

what's next? Lance Bass is gay?

I would have expected that if you put the world's best offenses versus the world's best defenses, it would have been close to a push. *EVERY* player in the league (both offense and defense) was given a 9 in Jim's scale for that test:

Here's a list of the frequency Overall Player Ratings are assigned in the default data file:

9 - Rare Superstar - 0.3%
8 - Superstar - 0.4%
7 - Near Superstar - 0.6%
6 - Elite Starter - 1.1%
5 - Excellent Starter - 1.5%
4 - Very Good-Plus Starter - 2.6%
3 - Very Good Starter - 3.9%
2 - Good Starter - 12.2%
1 - Replacement-Level Starter (decent backup) - 23.9%
0 - Roster Filler - 53.4%

So we're talking defensive backs with Deion Sanders cover ability, Ronnie Lott tackle ability, and Jack Tatum hitting ability, linebackers better in coverage help than Urlacher and meaner than Butkus, four pass-rushers that would make the Steel Curtain look like a college line. So, yeah, I would have expected a push here, or something at least close to it. And on the other end, with low-talent offense versus low-talent defense, I would have expected the offense to be able to move the ball at least decently. The talent in that case would be the equivalent of the Senior Bowl or East-West Shrine game.

[Hell Atlantic]

oh i see what you're getting at. so the game is somewhat slightly skewed towards offense even with all things being equal.

i always assumed so, even with the so-called comeback code myth being squashed, because QBs have extra ratings that involve success on offense (mainly 2 minute-drill - i'm assuming the QB gets a bump in ratings for the end of helf/game, and who knows, maybe the entire offense gets a bump based on the QB's 2 minutes drill rating). it even tracks their success in comebacks. i'm not trying to turn this into a comeback code thread, just saying i think jim threw some small things in there which ultimately result in a slight advantage towards offense. not like the defense is rated for "prevent comebacks/2 minute drill defense". so the defense plays normal, but it's the QB who has this small little kicker to add to his ratings that throws things in the offense's favor (however slight the advantage might be).

[SkyDog]

oh i see what you're getting at. so the game is somewhat slightly skewed towards offense even with all things being equal.

No, not that either. Like I said, a terrible defense will dominate a terrible offense, but an all-world offense will dominate an all-world defense. And any converted FOF2K4 league (especially one that used TCY draft files) will have more talent than the game norm, which will therefore cause elevated offensive stats from what we'll see in a league run with FOF2K7-level talent only. It's not a huge deal in the big scheme, just more of an epiphany for me. I'd always assumed elevated offense in MP FOF2K7 was pretty much purely because of game planning imbalance, with a small nod to talent, but it's clear to me now that the talent issue is much bigger than I'd realized.

[Jave]

No, not that either. Like I said, a terrible defense will dominate a terrible offense, but an all-world offense will dominate an all-world defense. And any converted FOF2K4 league (especially one that used TCY draft files) will have more talent than the game norm, which will therefore cause elevated offensive stats from what we'll see in a league run with FOF2K7-level talent only. It's not a huge deal in the big scheme, just more of an epiphany for me. I'd always assumed elevated offense in MP FOF2K7 was pretty much purely because of game planning imbalance, with a small nod to talent, but it's clear to me now that the talent issue is much bigger than I'd realized.

Heres a question. I noticed you mentioned the difference in talent between TCY and 04' vs 07'. Does this mean overall we will not see as talented players coming out of 07'? Or at least the overall number of talented players?

[Hell Atlantic]

Jave REALLY needs to know the answer to that question, since he own 3 1st round picks and like 24 2nd round pick for the next 2 drafts. a lot is at stake here. lol

[SkyDog]

Heres a question. I noticed you mentioned the difference in talent between TCY and 04' vs 07'. Does this mean overall we will not see as talented players coming out of 07'? Or at least the overall number of talented players?

Absolutely. The talent pool is lower in FOF2K7 than FOF2K4. (TCY-generated draft classes for FOF2K7 seem to be roughly in the neighborhood of FOF2K4 talent, maybe a little higher.) Here's a comparison of the csv.txt files explaining the talent distributions in the two games:

9 - Rare Superstar - 0.3%
8 - Superstar - 1.4%
7 - Near Superstar - 1.8%
6 - Elite Starter - 1.7%
5 - Excellent Starter - 3.5%
4 - Very Good-Plus Starter - 4.3%
3 - Very Good Starter - 6.0%
2 - Good Starter - 16.2%
1 - Replacement-Level Starter (decent backup) - 27.2%
0 - Roster Filler - 37.6%

9 - Rare Superstar - 0.3%
8 - Superstar - 0.4%
7 - Near Superstar - 0.6%
6 - Elite Starter - 1.1%
5 - Excellent Starter - 1.5%
4 - Very Good-Plus Starter - 2.6%
3 - Very Good Starter - 3.9%
2 - Good Starter - 12.2%
1 - Replacement-Level Starter (decent backup) - 23.9%
0 - Roster Filler - 53.4%

Now on the surface, that may not seem like a ton, but extrapolated out over 32 46-man squads (1472 players), you're talking in FOF2k7 having approximately 19 players in the league who are "near superstar" or better, as opposed to 51 such players in FOF2K4.

Specific example. Here are the top QBs in the WOOF, a league started with FOF2K7 and using only FOF2K7-created draft classes:

So roughly half of the league has a starting QB with a current rating under 50. It's a much more realistic talent distribution--lots more "average" players as starters, and the standout players really stand out.

[Hell Atlantic]

LOL....Jave, you totally picked a great time to start rebuilding.


HAHAHAHAHAHA

[BuddaKINGII]

Nice number crunching Sky Dog.

Should be interesting to see if there is a lower fluctuation when all 12+ yr qbs retire (Steiner, Lozier, Booker, et al).

It's clear that we have a roster set that is more talented than the FOF default...which I think is not all that bad. This will play out and even out in the end, eventually something along the lines that mirrors today's nfl.

[SkyDog]

LOL....Jave, you totally picked a great time to start rebuilding.


HAHAHAHAHAHA

Well, if he has a lot of first round picks in the next year or two, then he could have a *decided* advantage going forward. If an "8" or "9" QB shows up in the draft and he gets him, the odds are quite a bit higher that said stud QB will be the only stud QB in the league for a long time. My long-term SP league is even more pronounced than WOOF: only three guys rated above 70. As a result, the top-tier guys are *really* top-tier.

[Kobeck]

thanks for the input Skydog

[Jave]

Thanks SkyDog!! I just don't research a lot of this stuff and it's nice to see it in detail like that. Ignore HA, the poor guy couldn't draft if he had Jimmy Johnson and Bill Belichick telling him who to pick. He tends to make up for that with useless drivel directed at the rest of us hoping we won't notice his ignorance. We still think he is ok though.

[hawkster]

Thanks SkyDog!! I just don't research a lot of this stuff and it's nice to see it in detail like that. Ignore HA, the poor guy couldn't draft if he had Jimmy Jones and Bill Belichick telling him who to pick. He tends to make up for that with useless drivel directed at the rest of us hoping we won't notice his ignorance. We still think he is ok though.

Who's Jimmy Jones? Some crazy hybrid of Jimmy Johnson and Jerry Jones? I bet he would have Johnson's hair and Jones' teeth.

[Jave]

Who's Jimmy Jones? Some crazy hybrid of Jimmy Johnson and Jerry Jones? I bet he would have Johnson's hair and Jones' teeth.

haha thats what I get for posting at 6 in the morning.