Playoff Picture

[SteveBsFan]

2. St. Louis cannot win a tiebreaker with Houston if Houston beats Murfreesboro. If Houston loses to Murfreesboro, AND Anchorage loses BOTH of their last two games AND Norfolk loses BOTH of their last two games, then St. Louis gets the top seed if they win out. Conference records give Anchorage the tiebreaker. Head to head gives Norfolk the tiebreaker if they tie.

What happens in my division if I lose next week, StL wins, then we both win week 17?

Ugh, I hate that I have to play Murf for week 17. That's going to be a huge game for us, and they always play us so hard. With Opie and Fortune coming around, I may slip down to a WC spot. I have to win next week and Cards have to lose!!

[hawkster]

you losing next week doesn't hurt you in the division race at all, only the Murf loss can lose you the division.

[Kobeck]

well I'm still not sitting any starters. lol

[hawkster]

Edited Scenario 4 above. I had Wichita or Iowa City factored into Wild Card settings, but there's no way the team that doesn't win the division can finish 10-6 and contend for the Wild Card. 9-7 is another story, but we'll worry about that next week.

[MrBigglesworth]

If Madison and Pittsburgh tie for the division, it will go down to strength of victory. So what has to happen for us to take the tiebreaker would be that the following teams:

Little Rock
Tulsa
Lansing
Vancouver

...must get 2 more wins the final two weeks than these teams do:

Columbia
Texas
Dakota
Newark

[dberner30]

i think that the final week with IWC and WIC head to head decides our division. Im taking the parcells approach. every game is important and we arent looking at any scenario other than winning the games we are given.

[hawkster]

In order for Portland to make the playoffs, the following has to occur:

They have to beat a tiebreaker with Albuquerque first, meaning Portland has to win BOTH of their games and Albuquerque has to lose BOTH of their games. Albuquerque wins the tiebreaker with Portland if their records are the same due to a better common game record. All their games were the same except Alb's win over Norfolk is valued higher than Portland's win over Boston. If Alb loses to Little Rock and Portland beats Columbia, then nothing else really factors in because the winner of the Portland/Alb game afterwards would have the better record.

Once Portland can pass Albuquerque, they'll be 9-7. They have head to head advantages over Wichita, Hartford and Boston. If all three of those teams are tied at 9-7 with Albuquerque out of the picture, then Portland clinches the 6th spot. If Iowa City is involved, then Portland still wins out based on their conference record of 8-4.

[hawkster]

i think that the final week with IWC and WIC head to head decides our division. Im taking the parcells approach. every game is important and we arent looking at any scenario other than winning the games we are given.

Wrong, you MUST have a better record than Iowa City to clinch the division. They'll have the head to head or division tie breaker over you no matter who wins in the last week. Therefore if Iowa City wins this week, next week is meaningless for both of you.

[sovstar]

Albuquerque wins the tiebreaker with Portland if their records are the same due to a better common game record.

Both AQU and POR are 1-1 in non-common games (there are always 2 non-common games between division opponents). That means they'd have the same record in common games if they were tied.

[Matt]

What does the NFC look like?

Right now, I know I need to win atleast 1 of my next 2 games to win the division. If I lose my next 2, do I still have a chance at a wild card? I'm assuming yes.

[hawkster]

In order for Boston to make the playoffs, the following has to occur:

They first have to win out a tiebreaker with Hartford. If Boston loses to Norfolk, there's no way they can win a tiebreaker with Hartford if Hartford beats WV due to division records. If both teams finish 9-7 with 4-2 division records then Boston wins out with a 7-5 common game record over Hartford's 6-6. Beyond that, if both teams finish 8-8, Boston wins with their common game record even if they lose to Norfolk.

Once out of the division for tiebreakers, Boston has the head-to-head advantage over Albuquerque, but not Portland. The loser of the Iowa City/Wichita game will be at best 9-7 with a 6-6 conference record. If it comes down to just that team and Boston, it will fall to a strength of victory tiebreaker. If that same team is 9-7 with Boston AND Albuquerque, Alb wins based on conference records. If Boston goes 8-8, then even if both Albuquerque/Portland and Wichita/Iowa City are 8-8, the tiebreaker goes to Alb/Portland based on conference records, therefore Boston MUST go 9-7 to have a chance.

To Summarize,

Boston MUST win both of their games

Hartford MUST lose once.

Boston MUST have better strength of victory than the loser of the Iowa City/Wichita game IF the loser finishes 9-7 AND Albuquerque must lose both of their games AND Portland must lose to Columbia this week.....OR....Albuquerque beats Little Rock AND Loses to Portland AND the loser of the Wichita/Iowa City game finishes 8-8. This gives Boston the advantage over Albuquerque as the only two teams to finish 9-7 that are considered (Hartford and Portland would be out of contention at this point due to division tiebreakers even if they finish 9-7).

[sovstar]

Boston is 1-1 in non-common games - Hartford 2-0. Boston would have the better common games record.

[hawkster]

Albuquerque wins the tiebreaker with Portland if their records are the same due to a better common game record.

Both AQU and POR are 1-1 in non-common games (there are always 2 non-common games between division opponents). That means they'd have the same record in common games if they were tied.

My bad, I was looking at common game winning percentage rather than record. The next step would be strength of victory between myself and Portland. The difference between us are:

I've beaten Norfolk and Cleveland. (14-14)

They've beaten Boston and Wichita. (15-13)

If we both lose next week, our common game record will still be the same, else Portland gets to add Columbia, and I add Little Rock. the advantage will be with Portland. Then they have to beat me. So it's theoretically possible that Portland can lose next week then beat me, tie me at 8-8, then beat me with strength of victory. It's a long shot, but it's feasible. If Portland and Hartford/Boston and Wichita/Iowa City finish 8-8, then Portland clinches based on conference records.

If we both go 9-7 then Portland will most likely have the strength of victory over me and they'll also win any logjam tiebreakers with Hartford/Boston and Iowa City/Wichita thanks to conference records. They win outright against Hartford and Wichita with head to head if it's just those two or three teams.

[hawkster]

Boston is 1-1 in non-common games - Hartford 2-0. Boston would have the better common games record.

It wouldn't get that far.

Boston will have the better divison record if they beat Norfolk and Hartford loses to WV, or Hartford will have the better conference record if they beat WV.

[sovstar]

Boston is 1-1 in non-common games - Hartford 2-0. Boston would have the better common games record.

It wouldn't get that far.

Why?