Playoff Picture

[Warhammer]

We're three weeks out, but we can start looking at playoff scenarios with some degree of clarity.

I'll start with the AC since that is pretty cut and dry.

The current standings if the season ended today are:

1. ANC
2. NFK
3. STL
4. WIC
5. HOU
6. HAR

7. AQU
8. IWC
9. POR
10. MUR
11. BOS

1. Anchorage clinched the division title with AQU's loss today. They need to win two of their next three games to clinch the top seed throughout the playoffs. They own the tie breakers against both Norfolk and St. Louis for homefield advantage in the playoffs.

2. Norfolk owns the #2 seed in the AC by virtue of their head to head win over STL. They can clinch the #2 seed by winning rest of their games, or by winning 2 games with STL losing one, etc. They can clinch the division crown by winning 2 of their next three games, or if HAR loses a game. If NFK loses 2 games, and HAR wins 3 games, HAR wins the division by virtue of a better divisional record.

3. St. Louis owns the #3 seed in the AC as things stand now. St. Louis can clinch the division by beating Houston and one of the next two games. If they lose to Houston, they must win their next two games and hope that Houston loses two games. Houston has the tiebreaker advantage against St. Louis if they win next week by virtue of their better record against common opponents (games against WIC being the factor).

4. Wichita owns the #4 seed in the AC. Wichita can clinch the division crown by winning their final three games OR if they beat IWC, they can split their remaining games and win the division OR if they lose to IWC, but win their remaining two games while IWC loses two games. If they lose the division, the only way they can make the playoffs is if HAR loses more games than WIC AND if AQU loses two games (AQU owns the head to head tie breaker against WIC, and HAR owns the better conference record.)

5. Houston owns the #5 seed in the AC. Houston can clinch a WC birth with one win or an AQU loss. They can clinch the #5 seed with two wins and a HAR loss, or one win and two HAR losses. They can clinch their division with a win against STL and one more win, or a win against STL and one more STL loss.

6. Hartford owns the #6 seed in the AC. They can clinch a WC birth with three wins OR two wins and an AQU loss or two HOU losses OR one win and two AQU losses or three HOU losses. (If they lose all three games, there is a mathematical chance they get in, but that is so unlikely we won't discuss it) They can clinch the AC East by winning three games and NFK losing two out of three games.

7. Albuquerque is out of the playoffs. They can clinch a WC birth with three wins and a HAR loss or three HOU losses OR two wins and two HAR losses and a POR loss OR one win and three HAR losses and two POR losses.

8. Portland is out of the playoffs. They can clinch a WC birth with three wins, two HAR losses, and two losses by AQU (They lose any tie breaker with AQU by virtue of record against common opponents).

9. Boston is out of the playoffs. To clinch a WC birth they must beat HAR AND win their other two games and have one AQU loss and one POR loss and two HAR losses (They must finish ahead of HAR to clinch a playoff birth, HAR owns the tiebreaker by virtue of a better record against common opponents).

[SteveBsFan]

Didn't I clinch a playoff spot since I have the h2h over both AQU and IWC?

[Warhammer]

No, if AQU, HAR, and HOU all tie, I think you get left in the cold, because the tiebreaker would be conference record which would get AQU in, and then I beat you on the tiebreaker in head to head, so you would be left out in the cold. The odds for that are kind of slim though, looking at the schedules. I think both AQU and I each have another loss on the schedule, and I gotta think you're going to get at least one win, but your chances of going 0-3 are not too bad, STL and MAD are going to be tough, and MUR with Opie is going to be tough as well.

Also, my numbers for your losses may be off, I was thinking I was one game behind you. I'll double check that.

[Warhammer]

Gah, I screwed up my listing any way. Goes to show that I shouldn't do this at work.

However, I am positive that HOU has not clinched, due to a possible three way tie. But, that is the only way HOU does not get in. IWC and WIC will only get in if they win their division, I think HAR and AQU will win any tiebreaker with those teams if it came down to it.

[sovstar]

Bah, Warhammer is correct. In a 3-way tie AQU would have the best conference record, then Hartford beat Houston.

I have deleted my contradicting posts. ops:

[sovstar]

I'm pretty sure that I can wrap up the NC West with a win next week and an SLC loss to Vancouver. I would win by conference record. Actually all I need to do is win one of my remaining divisional games and have SLC lose one of his.

[Warhammer]

Iowa City is not in the playoffs. To clinch the division Iowa City must win all three of their games OR win two games and WIC loses to either CLE or IWC (It appears that for IWC to win the division, he must tie WIC with either the head to head tie break or the better division record, else WIC wins on common opponents). To clinch a WC birth, Iowa City must win two games and AQU lose at least two games and HAR loses two games, both of which must be conference games, OR IWC must win two games and AQU lose at least two games and HAR loses three games.

[hawkster]

Down with Houston and Hartford!

[SteveBsFan]

Gah, I screwed up my listing any way. Goes to show that I shouldn't do this at work.

However, I am positive that HOU has not clinched, due to a possible three way tie. But, that is the only way HOU does not get in. IWC and WIC will only get in if they win their division, I think HAR and AQU will win any tiebreaker with those teams if it came down to it.

Ahh, ok. Yea, although that is possible. StL is tough, Madison is leading their division, and Murf always plays me hard and they're playing much better.

AQU will have a tough time winning out with Anc, Por, and Lrk, but you never know.

It's probable HAR wins at least 1 out of the three, and very possible they win out with Bos and Reno as the other two games.

If you win out, that locks me in, correct? The only way I miss the playoffs is if you lose to one of those teams, AQU beats three tough teams and I lose my final three?

[Warhammer]

The keys to the AC race are:

1) Houston needs only one win to clinch a WC spot.
2) Hartford controls their own destiny for the final WC spot, if they win out, they are in. They will lose any tiebreaker with AQU for the final spot. They will win any tiebreaker with HOU for the final spot.
3) Albuquerque will win nearly every tiebreaker with the exception of a Houston and Boston head to head tiebreaker which they would lose. The only way this happens is if Albuquerque and Hartford win all their games and Houston loses all of their games.
4) Iowa City and Wichita control their destiny for the conference crown, if both teams win their games, it comes down to the final game of the season. Loser will most likely go home. Neither team played Albuquerque or Hartford and both would lose tiebreakers to them based upon common opponents.
5) Boston is still mathematically alive, but they need to finish ahead of Hartford which means they win three and Hartford loses three. In this scenario, they would own the tie breaker with Albuqueque should they tie, but would lose in a three way tie.
6) Portland is still mathematically alive, but they need to finish ahead of AQU in the division. They would need to win three games and AQU would need to lose two. They own the tiebreaker with Hartford, but would have to hope that Hartford loses two games. They own head to head tiebreakers with WIC, BOS, and HAR.
7) MUR is still mathematically alive, but so many things need to happen for them to get in, they should just consider themselves out. Basically, they need to win all their games and hope that either WIC or IWC does not win another game, HAR must not win another game, AQU must only win one game, etc.

[Warhammer]

Gah, I screwed up my listing any way. Goes to show that I shouldn't do this at work.

However, I am positive that HOU has not clinched, due to a possible three way tie. But, that is the only way HOU does not get in. IWC and WIC will only get in if they win their division, I think HAR and AQU will win any tiebreaker with those teams if it came down to it.

Ahh, ok. Yea, although that is possible. StL is tough, Madison is leading their division, and Murf always plays me hard and they're playing much better.

AQU will have a tough time winning out with Anc, Por, and Lrk, but you never know.

It's probable HAR wins at least 1 out of the three, and very possible they win out with Bos and Reno as the other two games.

If you win out, that locks me in, correct? The only way I miss the playoffs is if you lose to one of those teams, AQU beats three tough teams and I lose my final three?

You basically want to win a game, which puts you clear of AQU.

Barring that, hope that I win out. I should win 2 of my 3 games, which places you in the danger zone, since you don't want to be tied with me.

[hawkster]

I like the "Hartford and Houston lose their next 3 games" option, can we go with that one?

[Warhammer]

I like the "Hartford and Houston lose their next 3 games" option, can we go with that one?

I've got WVA on my schedule, I don't think I'm losing that one.

I really like my situation since you and Houston have such a tough road ahead. I can easily see Houston losing two games, and if that happens, I could wind up with the #5 seed, and I would relish playing WIC or IWC in the first round. I wouldn't even mind being the #6 seed if I knew I would be playing NFK in the first round.

I think the most important game in the league this week is ANC v. AQU because it could effectively settle so many things. First, ANC needs a win for the top spot in the conference. AQU needs a win to keep from falling two games back in WC hunt. If AQU loses, the next important game in the AC is the HAR v. BOS game where if HAR wins, they are all but assured of a playoff spot since I expect to win my last two home games.

[Suicane]

I am openly rooting for Boston to make the playoffs. They have pretty colors.

[hawkster]

I am openly rooting for Boston to make the playoffs. They have pretty colors.

Who?