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Carlisle is another college stud (87/100) with a high volatily and fairly good combine numbers. I contemplated taking him in the 5th, but I went for a need instead. The guard I picked is a boom candidate as well though, so it's all good.
These rules are not absolute, but just trends. The yellow line at the top is an interesting case: he went from 60/80 to 60/60 to 69/69 in the course of a season. Most data for the losers only lasts a season or two, because they were cut. One exception is the pink line that starts at 70, I've kept him and he continues to trend down. Those that trend down also gain current pts at a slower rate, probably because they don't have as far to go to reach their full potential.
Is the magnitude of the drop in potential an issue. 1 point drop the same as a 3 point drop?
I'm hoping Carlisle works out because I am going to need all the corners I can get at this point.
Originally posted by Jeff
Carlisle is another college stud (87/100) with a high volatily and fairly good combine numbers. I contemplated taking him in the 5th, but I went for a need instead. The guard I picked is a boom candidate as well though, so it's all good.
These rules are not absolute, but just trends. The yellow line at the top is an interesting case: he went from 60/80 to 60/60 to 69/69 in the course of a season. Most data for the losers only lasts a season or two, because they were cut. One exception is the pink line that starts at 70, I've kept him and he continues to trend down. Those that trend down also gain current pts at a slower rate, probably because they don't have as far to go to reach their full potential.
Is the magnitude of the drop in potential an issue. 1 point drop the same as a 3 point drop?
I don't have enough data to say for sure, but it looks random (for example, one -4 went down another 12 pts by the next offseason, another -4 only went down another 3), may have to do with how good your scout is (maybe if he is good he sees more of the drop at once).
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