[HIGHLY EXPERIMENTAL] 2076 Conference Games prediction model

[TheseBoots]

gg rode. by far the best team in the regular season and a worthy bowl winner. i really enjoy these games where you have to take on a superpower offense,...

[TheseBoots]

It is not pretty, LOL. Slightly worse odds than MUR even though it's a neutral venue. TBH WVA handled me pretty easily at their place in the regular season...

[TheseBoots]

2/2 hehe

[TheseBoots]

gg Hinch. great season and tough team. was lucky to get ahead early and then be able to keep you at arm's length. bowl game again and just like last year...

[TheseBoots]

Takes time to build a team in this league - very good second season...

[TheseBoots]

Based on a season yes, the distribution is U-shaped, with ~70% of games falling in the middle third of probabilities. Across the IFL2076 season, for games...

[TheseBoots]

just realised I forgot to flip the neutral venue correction - will fix next time

[TheseBoots]

OK, so, caveats time. Net EPA is predictive of wins, but definitely not perfect. The gap is explained by: small sample size, special teams, turnover luck,...

[TheseBoots]

Time to go out on a limb and have a stab at turning all the numbers into something predictive. Highly experimental first attempt only, but here is the...

[TheseBoots]

Rankings tracks well with the season results. Top 12 teams all made the playoffs except Alaska (10) who saw their place usurped by Dakota (14). Teams...

[TheseBoots]

OK so this post is really some sicko stuff and probably not for everyone, as I continue to play around with new ways of analyzing the games. I'm attaching...

[TheseBoots]

gg Clown. Still not quite DAK's time, but it is coming...

Texas's defense held up, wow! Impressive.

[TheseBoots]

Thanks, guys - appreciated!

[TheseBoots]

For more information about Expected Points, see here: https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/ex...added-epa-nfl/

[TheseBoots]

A typical use of EPA is to plot which teams are good or poor at passing or running the ball. Here is the breakdown for the 76 regular season. The v...

[TheseBoots]

A lot of people will be familiar with EPA, but in case you are not, EPA stands for Expected Points Added. It is a method for attributing a value to a...

[TheseBoots]

You can click the embedded images for big versions. And for anyone (anyone??) who listens to the IFL Chat shows might know, I Often wonder what LBs do...

[TheseBoots]

Which defenses were the most horrible to play against? We can get a sense of it by calculating the 'Havoc Rate' of the defense by summing sacks, forced...

[TheseBoots]

So, what about defense? Well, let's have a look at which teams were just good at stopping their opponents without conceding a score. Stop Rate to...

[TheseBoots]

With the regular season in the can I can run the results through a few tools I have been slowly working on in my lab. Let's have a different look at Turnovers...