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Not that I feel the need to explain myself regarding this trade. However let’s look at the trade breaking it down using values
I will use the ESPN draft value chart, yes there are others but I had a copy of the ESPN one so we will use that one.
1.6 is worth 1600 points
I offered for that pick
1.19 is worth 875 points
4.20 is worth 62 points
2020 1st (assuming I pick around 20 again) is worth 850 points
That totals 1787 points which is somewhere between picks 1.4 and 1.5, so
Now last year I tried to move up and offered deals where it was even more one sided to the other team and these were all rejected, most teams would prefer to keep the higher pick regardless of the points value, you will see mention of this later. So you have to overpay to move up and even then trades are not made!
One other thing to consider is that some people regard future draft picks as worth a round less in the future so a 1st next year would be regarding as being worth a 2nd this year. If we follow that logic that makes the 1st round pick in 2020 worth 380 points. So the Mules side of the deal would total 1317 points giving the Mules the advantage as that part of the deal would then be the equivalent of a pick between 1.9 and 1.10.
Note this deal had been discussed since Friday and Jester was not sure he wanted to make that deal as he was trying to trade Boyd to reduce the salary cap issues.
Now let’s look at the CB Boyd part of the deal, this only came into the discussion on Monday. Boyd is in his 8th season but he is one of the leagues top CB’s and that is an area I have been trying to upgrade since I joined the league.
In my first season I had pick 1.4 and with 1.1 going on a top draw QB was hopeful one of the two CB’s would fall to me, they didn’t. Last year as I said I tried to trade up to add a top draw CB again couldn’t get anyone to deal despite offering over the odds.
So looking at what Boyd cost the Mules.
2.18 is worth 400 points
7.17 is worth 8.8 points
2020 2nd round pick (again assuming drafting 20th) is worth 380 points
2020 4th round pick is worth 62 points
2020 7th round pick is worth 7.6 points
2021 2nd round pick (assume picking 20th) is worth 380 points
2021 7th round pick is worth 7.6 points
So that is a total of 1246 points which is the equivalent of 1.11 pick in this draft. Is that overpaying for him, I would say yes.
However the deal does not cost the Mules a 1st round pick and you need to consider whether I am likely to get the same level impact player with those 2nd round selections, the answer is no, depth yes, top draw talent no.
Looking at the other CB trades made this offseason they have cost less, but one includes a 1st round pick this year and I could not make that trade as I was trying to use my 1.19 pick to move up to 1.6.
The other CB traded I made a number of offers but could not get a deal done despite offering more picks because my 2nd this year was too late… I offered 2.18, 3.17 and a 2nd next year so the equivalent of 955 points which is the value of 1.17 in this draft, for a player who was younger but not as good. But as I said I could not get a deal done because the 2nd was too late and the expectation was next years would also be too late.
If we look at the value of those picks I did trade for Boyd based on picks being worth a round less each year later, as mentioned above, it brings the cost down even further, again based in picking 20th the next two seasons the 2nd in 2020 is equivalent of a 3rd this year so 170 points and the one in 2021 is worth a 4th this year so 62 points, ignoring the other picks in the 4th and 7th rounds so they are worth the same regardless of year, as I can’t be bothered working those out, that reduces the total worth of the picks for Boyd in points to 718 points which is the equivalent of pick 1.25.
Effectively the same as the other deal for the top CB but without giving up a 1st round pick and no one complained that wasn’t worth doing!
If I reduce the value of the future pick for the CB trade where I was turned down, that brings the value of that offer down to 725 points so effectively the same overall offer as the deal for Boyd. Yet this was a deal I could not make because the higher 2nd round picks were considered more valuable, which backs up the reasoning behind the deal for 1.6.
The Mules have a more than decent roster so many late round draftees will not make the 53. I am looking for quality or quantity at the moment adding a top draw CB and hopefully one of the best players in this draft class should have a positive impact before the rest of the Mules roster is too old to have another shot.
Note I have identified only 8 to 10 players I would really want in the 1st round, there are other good ones but not in positions of need so would be getting quality players but the result would be no major improvement in the overall roster.
As an aside the 7th round picks don’t matter as much to me. This is due to the time zone differences as I usually have to leave queues on and it is difficult when the queues have 50 or more players to cover multiple rounds to always get value when you are trying to consider need. Therefore I don’t place as much value on those picks.
Sorry this is so long but I hope for those who feel I was ripped off can understand the thinking behind the deal from my side.
From Jester he didn’t want to move 1.6 and he would have liked to have kept hold of Boyd but salary cap issues have forced his hand. Has he got lots of draft picks as part of the deal, absolutely would he have made the deal if his salary cap situation wasn’t an issue, no as he has already stated. This deal to me is a win/win for both teams as I get what I need now in the CB and a hopefully a top draw player at 1.6 while Jester reduces the salary cap burden and has plenty of picks over the next few years to compensate for what he has given up.
I will use the ESPN draft value chart, yes there are others but I had a copy of the ESPN one so we will use that one.
1.6 is worth 1600 points
I offered for that pick
1.19 is worth 875 points
4.20 is worth 62 points
2020 1st (assuming I pick around 20 again) is worth 850 points
That totals 1787 points which is somewhere between picks 1.4 and 1.5, so
Now last year I tried to move up and offered deals where it was even more one sided to the other team and these were all rejected, most teams would prefer to keep the higher pick regardless of the points value, you will see mention of this later. So you have to overpay to move up and even then trades are not made!
One other thing to consider is that some people regard future draft picks as worth a round less in the future so a 1st next year would be regarding as being worth a 2nd this year. If we follow that logic that makes the 1st round pick in 2020 worth 380 points. So the Mules side of the deal would total 1317 points giving the Mules the advantage as that part of the deal would then be the equivalent of a pick between 1.9 and 1.10.
Note this deal had been discussed since Friday and Jester was not sure he wanted to make that deal as he was trying to trade Boyd to reduce the salary cap issues.
Now let’s look at the CB Boyd part of the deal, this only came into the discussion on Monday. Boyd is in his 8th season but he is one of the leagues top CB’s and that is an area I have been trying to upgrade since I joined the league.
In my first season I had pick 1.4 and with 1.1 going on a top draw QB was hopeful one of the two CB’s would fall to me, they didn’t. Last year as I said I tried to trade up to add a top draw CB again couldn’t get anyone to deal despite offering over the odds.
So looking at what Boyd cost the Mules.
2.18 is worth 400 points
7.17 is worth 8.8 points
2020 2nd round pick (again assuming drafting 20th) is worth 380 points
2020 4th round pick is worth 62 points
2020 7th round pick is worth 7.6 points
2021 2nd round pick (assume picking 20th) is worth 380 points
2021 7th round pick is worth 7.6 points
So that is a total of 1246 points which is the equivalent of 1.11 pick in this draft. Is that overpaying for him, I would say yes.
However the deal does not cost the Mules a 1st round pick and you need to consider whether I am likely to get the same level impact player with those 2nd round selections, the answer is no, depth yes, top draw talent no.
Looking at the other CB trades made this offseason they have cost less, but one includes a 1st round pick this year and I could not make that trade as I was trying to use my 1.19 pick to move up to 1.6.
The other CB traded I made a number of offers but could not get a deal done despite offering more picks because my 2nd this year was too late… I offered 2.18, 3.17 and a 2nd next year so the equivalent of 955 points which is the value of 1.17 in this draft, for a player who was younger but not as good. But as I said I could not get a deal done because the 2nd was too late and the expectation was next years would also be too late.
If we look at the value of those picks I did trade for Boyd based on picks being worth a round less each year later, as mentioned above, it brings the cost down even further, again based in picking 20th the next two seasons the 2nd in 2020 is equivalent of a 3rd this year so 170 points and the one in 2021 is worth a 4th this year so 62 points, ignoring the other picks in the 4th and 7th rounds so they are worth the same regardless of year, as I can’t be bothered working those out, that reduces the total worth of the picks for Boyd in points to 718 points which is the equivalent of pick 1.25.
Effectively the same as the other deal for the top CB but without giving up a 1st round pick and no one complained that wasn’t worth doing!
If I reduce the value of the future pick for the CB trade where I was turned down, that brings the value of that offer down to 725 points so effectively the same overall offer as the deal for Boyd. Yet this was a deal I could not make because the higher 2nd round picks were considered more valuable, which backs up the reasoning behind the deal for 1.6.
The Mules have a more than decent roster so many late round draftees will not make the 53. I am looking for quality or quantity at the moment adding a top draw CB and hopefully one of the best players in this draft class should have a positive impact before the rest of the Mules roster is too old to have another shot.
Note I have identified only 8 to 10 players I would really want in the 1st round, there are other good ones but not in positions of need so would be getting quality players but the result would be no major improvement in the overall roster.
As an aside the 7th round picks don’t matter as much to me. This is due to the time zone differences as I usually have to leave queues on and it is difficult when the queues have 50 or more players to cover multiple rounds to always get value when you are trying to consider need. Therefore I don’t place as much value on those picks.
Sorry this is so long but I hope for those who feel I was ripped off can understand the thinking behind the deal from my side.
From Jester he didn’t want to move 1.6 and he would have liked to have kept hold of Boyd but salary cap issues have forced his hand. Has he got lots of draft picks as part of the deal, absolutely would he have made the deal if his salary cap situation wasn’t an issue, no as he has already stated. This deal to me is a win/win for both teams as I get what I need now in the CB and a hopefully a top draw player at 1.6 while Jester reduces the salary cap burden and has plenty of picks over the next few years to compensate for what he has given up.
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