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Coming off the bye week and sitting on a disappointing 2-4 record Little Rock is, fortunately, only two games behind the NC South division leaders Texas and we have 10 games to close that gap and qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2027.
But to achieve that goal the Thunder needs to get the win against the Wolfpack this week, moral victories just won’t cut it.
So what’s in store for Little Rock against Argot’s squad?
The first thing that jumps out is the fact that Arizona has achieved a lot in spite of question marks across their roster and in particular at QB.
Wolfpack legend QB Wesley May, franchised ahead of the 2031 season, was knocked out of the lineup with a concussion in Week 2 and made a less than impressive return to the field in Week 5 when he was replaced at the halftime break by QB Kelvin Turnbull. The rookie QB, who had two impressive starts while May was out, had been drafted at 3.16 by Vermont but had been released by the Mountaineers in Week 1, a decision by Slimmkey that would be hard to fault had it not been for the unexpected and unusually solid play that Turnbull has somehow managed to put together. Credit where credit is due to Argot for seeing something that most of us didn't and for building his game plan around what his backups could do.
Since that Week 5 debacle not only has May been a healthy scratch but Arizona has gone away from Turnbull and started second year pro Douglas Crane in his place. Crane has vindicated Argot’s move by emerging with a hot hand. How hot? Let’s have a look at the numbers:
QB Wille Mays (73/73) $26,540,000 salary
Passing: 38/78 (48.7%) 377yds (4.83/ATT) 0TD 2 INT QBR 52.1
Rushing: 1 carry for 9yds
QB Kelvin Turnbull (7/27) $750,000 salary
Passing: 59/81 (72.8%) 542yds (6.69/ATT) 4TD 1INT QBR: 101.9
Rushing: 12 carries 41yds and 1FUM
QB Douglas Crane (16/24) $890,000 salary
Passing: 41/59 (69.5%) 442yds (7.49/ATT) 4TD 0INT QBR: 113.8
Rushing: 13 carries for 80yds
Sometimes (maybe most times?) we should ignore the bars and look at the performances. And these performances are so good!
While not exactly airing it out Argot is not afraid to throw the ball with Crane or Turnbull and he has managed to complete about 70% of his passes for almost 1000 yards and with 8TDs and only 1INT in just four starts. And this with guys that most of us would not even look at. How do you defend a team like that?
So in game planning for the Wolfpack the first question that the Thunder has to ask is this: Who will start at QB? Will Argot stay with the journeymen or will he roll the dice (in spite of the numbers) and go back to Mays? Our answer to this will essentially dictate our entire defensive gameplan and I’m waiting for either a gut feeling or a PM from Argot to tell me which way to go on this.
Offensively Arizona has added some other wrinkles as well.
Marquis free agent RB D.J. Wolf was lured away from West Virginia with a hefty 4 year $66.78M contract to add some big play capability to the Wolfpack ground game but after injuring his foot in the last week of pre-season (and missing the first five games of the year) he finds himself with 1 carry for 0 yards and starting at….SE! An eye-watering 94 Route Running makes him an intriguing option on the perimeter but with only 4 catches for 46 yards is this a long-term move or a short term tactic? While I’m yet to see a KRB delivered by a WR in this game, at 6’1” and 220lbs Wolf would be a big body on the perimeter but I have no idea what impact he would have on the game from that position or if it’s even a factor in the many dice rolls that occur on each play. For my money a return to the backfield would seem inevitable for Wolf but will it be this week?
Arizona’s Offensive Line is solid across the board and boasts an 81 cohesion rating and when you add to that the blocking power of FB Rodney Moyer (74RB/72 BS and 7/13 KRB) and TEs Wilburn (82RB/87BS) and Wiebe (64RB/71BS) you have a pretty potent combination. With that blocking power up front RB Lorenzo Lang has rushed for over 600 yards at almost 5 yards per carry and you would expect that moving Wolf back there would solidify what has to be considered Arizona’s core strength.
Defensively the Wolfpack have an elite defensive line and solid linebacking corps that does not auger well for our running game and putting the pressure well and truly onto the (rounded) shoulders of Albert Gianettino. If we expect to keep drives alive and dictate the pace of the game he will have to step up and consistently complete those key passes for first downs. History suggests that this could be a big ask.
Looking across the rest of Argot’s defense there are hits and misses for Little Rock against his secondary. We’d love to see WRs Luther Baez or Sean Everett going deep against them in a 3 or 4 deep zone or RB David Cassidy working intermediate routes against WILB Samuel Starks in man, but that would demand a lot from the notoriously inconsistent and scramble-prone Gianettino who would have to read the defence and hang tough in the face of the Wolfpack pass rush.
It’s something that could go either way for us, we could eke out a steady string of first downs and get some shots downfield or we could just as easily get stuffed on first down and end up with a whole bunch of three-and-out possessions. We might be able to slow down Arizona's running game for most of the game and then get burned by one big breakaway run or a key Crane/Turnbull/Mays pass.
Argot is the real wildcard for me in this game and having never faced one of his teams before there are way too many unknowns for me. I could get very lucky, I could get very unlucky but either way I’m really looking forward to this game.
KEY MATCHUPS:
Arizona QB (whoever it is) vs Little Rock Pass Defense: Thunder CBs Parella, Franz and Godfrey look like they win this match-up on paper but could get burned if the Thunder overplays the run.
Arizona RBs Lang and Wolf vs Little Rock Run Defense: Rookie SILB Cesar Greer is the player on the hot seat and his undeveloped RD and PD could be a major liability against the Wolfpack running game.
Arizona TEs Cory Wilburn and Darren Wiebe vs Little Rock SLB Justin Cole and SS Kelvin Fackleman: This match up is like an All-Star game with all four players rated as 64+. The Wolfpack TEs have combined for 40 catches 540 yards and 5TDs in 7 games and are the primary receiving threat for the Wolfpack. Project that performance over 16 games to appreciate how scary those guys are.
Little Rock LT Ricardo Porter vs Arizona RDE J.C. Dobranski: Porter starts for the injured Charles Footman and faces a red-hot Dobranski who has 6.5 Sacks, 8 Hurries and 10 Knockdowns so far this year. Where's the bloody "double team" button in the Miscellaneous Offensive Settings screen?????
Battle of the Punt Returners: Little Rock rookie Pedro Franz has averaged 12.8 yards on 17 returns (including 1TD) while Arizona’s Lawrence Urlacher has averaged 12.7 yards on 15 returns. These two players are ranked #2 and #3 based on average yards per return and in a close game it could be that one of them will provide the play that carries the day for their team. I'm hoping it will be Franz :-)
Arizona K Timothy Meier: The rookie kicker is almost fully developed and can convert kicks from long range. He’s 3/3 on kicks of 50+ yards and 17/19 overall. If the game comes down to a kick for the win Meier will make it.
Point Spread:
Arizona by 2
Head to Head:
This will be the 19th meeting of the teams and Little Rock leads the series 10-8
Last Meeting:
Week 13, 2029: Little Rock 24 def Arizona 3 at Little Rock
But to achieve that goal the Thunder needs to get the win against the Wolfpack this week, moral victories just won’t cut it.
So what’s in store for Little Rock against Argot’s squad?
The first thing that jumps out is the fact that Arizona has achieved a lot in spite of question marks across their roster and in particular at QB.
Wolfpack legend QB Wesley May, franchised ahead of the 2031 season, was knocked out of the lineup with a concussion in Week 2 and made a less than impressive return to the field in Week 5 when he was replaced at the halftime break by QB Kelvin Turnbull. The rookie QB, who had two impressive starts while May was out, had been drafted at 3.16 by Vermont but had been released by the Mountaineers in Week 1, a decision by Slimmkey that would be hard to fault had it not been for the unexpected and unusually solid play that Turnbull has somehow managed to put together. Credit where credit is due to Argot for seeing something that most of us didn't and for building his game plan around what his backups could do.
Since that Week 5 debacle not only has May been a healthy scratch but Arizona has gone away from Turnbull and started second year pro Douglas Crane in his place. Crane has vindicated Argot’s move by emerging with a hot hand. How hot? Let’s have a look at the numbers:
QB Wille Mays (73/73) $26,540,000 salary
Passing: 38/78 (48.7%) 377yds (4.83/ATT) 0TD 2 INT QBR 52.1
Rushing: 1 carry for 9yds
QB Kelvin Turnbull (7/27) $750,000 salary
Passing: 59/81 (72.8%) 542yds (6.69/ATT) 4TD 1INT QBR: 101.9
Rushing: 12 carries 41yds and 1FUM
QB Douglas Crane (16/24) $890,000 salary
Passing: 41/59 (69.5%) 442yds (7.49/ATT) 4TD 0INT QBR: 113.8
Rushing: 13 carries for 80yds
Sometimes (maybe most times?) we should ignore the bars and look at the performances. And these performances are so good!
While not exactly airing it out Argot is not afraid to throw the ball with Crane or Turnbull and he has managed to complete about 70% of his passes for almost 1000 yards and with 8TDs and only 1INT in just four starts. And this with guys that most of us would not even look at. How do you defend a team like that?
So in game planning for the Wolfpack the first question that the Thunder has to ask is this: Who will start at QB? Will Argot stay with the journeymen or will he roll the dice (in spite of the numbers) and go back to Mays? Our answer to this will essentially dictate our entire defensive gameplan and I’m waiting for either a gut feeling or a PM from Argot to tell me which way to go on this.
Offensively Arizona has added some other wrinkles as well.
Marquis free agent RB D.J. Wolf was lured away from West Virginia with a hefty 4 year $66.78M contract to add some big play capability to the Wolfpack ground game but after injuring his foot in the last week of pre-season (and missing the first five games of the year) he finds himself with 1 carry for 0 yards and starting at….SE! An eye-watering 94 Route Running makes him an intriguing option on the perimeter but with only 4 catches for 46 yards is this a long-term move or a short term tactic? While I’m yet to see a KRB delivered by a WR in this game, at 6’1” and 220lbs Wolf would be a big body on the perimeter but I have no idea what impact he would have on the game from that position or if it’s even a factor in the many dice rolls that occur on each play. For my money a return to the backfield would seem inevitable for Wolf but will it be this week?
Arizona’s Offensive Line is solid across the board and boasts an 81 cohesion rating and when you add to that the blocking power of FB Rodney Moyer (74RB/72 BS and 7/13 KRB) and TEs Wilburn (82RB/87BS) and Wiebe (64RB/71BS) you have a pretty potent combination. With that blocking power up front RB Lorenzo Lang has rushed for over 600 yards at almost 5 yards per carry and you would expect that moving Wolf back there would solidify what has to be considered Arizona’s core strength.
Defensively the Wolfpack have an elite defensive line and solid linebacking corps that does not auger well for our running game and putting the pressure well and truly onto the (rounded) shoulders of Albert Gianettino. If we expect to keep drives alive and dictate the pace of the game he will have to step up and consistently complete those key passes for first downs. History suggests that this could be a big ask.
Looking across the rest of Argot’s defense there are hits and misses for Little Rock against his secondary. We’d love to see WRs Luther Baez or Sean Everett going deep against them in a 3 or 4 deep zone or RB David Cassidy working intermediate routes against WILB Samuel Starks in man, but that would demand a lot from the notoriously inconsistent and scramble-prone Gianettino who would have to read the defence and hang tough in the face of the Wolfpack pass rush.
It’s something that could go either way for us, we could eke out a steady string of first downs and get some shots downfield or we could just as easily get stuffed on first down and end up with a whole bunch of three-and-out possessions. We might be able to slow down Arizona's running game for most of the game and then get burned by one big breakaway run or a key Crane/Turnbull/Mays pass.
Argot is the real wildcard for me in this game and having never faced one of his teams before there are way too many unknowns for me. I could get very lucky, I could get very unlucky but either way I’m really looking forward to this game.
KEY MATCHUPS:
Arizona QB (whoever it is) vs Little Rock Pass Defense: Thunder CBs Parella, Franz and Godfrey look like they win this match-up on paper but could get burned if the Thunder overplays the run.
Arizona RBs Lang and Wolf vs Little Rock Run Defense: Rookie SILB Cesar Greer is the player on the hot seat and his undeveloped RD and PD could be a major liability against the Wolfpack running game.
Arizona TEs Cory Wilburn and Darren Wiebe vs Little Rock SLB Justin Cole and SS Kelvin Fackleman: This match up is like an All-Star game with all four players rated as 64+. The Wolfpack TEs have combined for 40 catches 540 yards and 5TDs in 7 games and are the primary receiving threat for the Wolfpack. Project that performance over 16 games to appreciate how scary those guys are.
Little Rock LT Ricardo Porter vs Arizona RDE J.C. Dobranski: Porter starts for the injured Charles Footman and faces a red-hot Dobranski who has 6.5 Sacks, 8 Hurries and 10 Knockdowns so far this year. Where's the bloody "double team" button in the Miscellaneous Offensive Settings screen?????
Battle of the Punt Returners: Little Rock rookie Pedro Franz has averaged 12.8 yards on 17 returns (including 1TD) while Arizona’s Lawrence Urlacher has averaged 12.7 yards on 15 returns. These two players are ranked #2 and #3 based on average yards per return and in a close game it could be that one of them will provide the play that carries the day for their team. I'm hoping it will be Franz :-)
Arizona K Timothy Meier: The rookie kicker is almost fully developed and can convert kicks from long range. He’s 3/3 on kicks of 50+ yards and 17/19 overall. If the game comes down to a kick for the win Meier will make it.
Point Spread:
Arizona by 2
Head to Head:
This will be the 19th meeting of the teams and Little Rock leads the series 10-8
Last Meeting:
Week 13, 2029: Little Rock 24 def Arizona 3 at Little Rock
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