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PRE SEASON POWER RATINGS
TB has mad a feeble attempt to predict the elite teams for the 2020 season. A tough task considering no game under regular season conditions has been played yet. We also believe that this may be the most controversial analysis that we have done. We predict that there will be teams that won’t like where they stand up in the ratings. Anyway, consideration was given as follows:
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:arrow: Rosters change from year to year through retirement, free agency, and the draft. Yet there are teams that manage to be considered in the elite class year after year. In order to help identify those teams, we ranked each team based on the number of regular season games that it has won for the last three years. Teams with a high ranking would seem to suggest that its GM has the knack to consistently get good results by managing those roster circumstances while incorporating intuitive game planning to complement those changes.
This review’s top five in this category were: West Virginia (37), Tulsa (37), Newark (36), Norfolk (36), Portland (36).
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:arrow: Each team’s 53 man roster was then analyzed. Our first pass was to count the number of players on the roster that had a current [b] rating that was at least “good” or a 50. Such players would certainly qualify for starter status. The count provides a rough projection on the “current” strength of a starting lineup. Our next pass was then to look at the 30th highest rated player (using his current rating) on the roster regardless of position. We feel that this bookmark provided a rough idea of how strong the depth chart might be when comparing each thirtieth man to other teams. The cumulative score of these two provided us with strength of roster (as currently rated).
Highest number of players with a current rating of at least a 50: Portland (23), Newark (21), Vancouver (20), lots of teams with (18 )
Current bench strength (at the thirtieth highest player rating): Portland (44), Newark (44), Iowa City (43), lots of teams at (42).
Cumulative Current Strength of Roster: Portland (67), Newark (65), Vancouver (61), Murfreesboro (60), a bunch of teams at (59)
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:arrow: Then we looked at the 53 man rosters’ Future Estimate for ratings. We believe that this study provided a measure on what advances in talent a team could possibly make over the course of the season … advances that may significantly impact a team’s initial roster strength by playoff time.
Highest number of players with a future rating of at least a 50: Lawrence (27), Norfolk (25), Portland (24), Vancouver (24), Newark (22).
Future bench strength rating at the thirtieth position: Lawrence (48 ), Norfolk (47), Portland (46), Newark (44), a bunch of teams at 43.
Cumulative Future Strength of Roster: Lawrence (75), Norfolk (71), Portland (70), Vancouver (67), Newark (66).
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:arrow: Finally, we looked at the playoff history for the last three years for each team. We focused on the number of games played which highlites those teams that seemed to take advantage of the playoff opportunity rather than make the playoffs and be one and done. We also gave extra credit for games won. We believe that teams that ranked high in our spread sheet reflected two things: dominance in a division, and the history of making the best of a playoff opportunity. This gives a power allowance to teams that may not fare as well in the categories stated earlier but do manage to dominate their division year end and year out. Once in the playoffs, anything can happen because it is a short four game season at that point.
The top five teams with strong playoff ratings were: Murfreesboro (14), Pennsylvania (13), West Virginia, Cleveland, Oakland (all with 12).
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Now just what does this all mean? Well here goes boys and don’t :shoot: the messenger! After we sorted and added all these factors into one spread sheet, this is how it mathematically plays out. It, in turn, becomes our first and infamous preseason prediction for the 2020 playoffs:
2020 PRE-SEASON POWER RATINGS – ELITE STATUS (the 2020 playoff teams)
:!: 1. Portland (181)… clearly the team to beat (and maybe that is why they are the current IFL champs and why they surprised everyone last year). Jeff is seasoned game planner and makes use of the tons of talent on the team. We do not see any weaknesses. The Seals should win the AC West and represent the AC in the IFL Bowl and are a favorite to repeat.
:!: 2. Newark (175)… Matt fields another juggernaut that is very comparable to the strengths of Portland. The strength of their division could be problematic however. Regardless, the Bulldogs should win the NC East and should find itself in a rematch with the Seals in the Bowl.
:!: 3. Lawrence (172)… Lawrence’s starters are just a step behind division rival Newark. The team’s hidden strength is in its bench and with Jester at the controls, one can expect some Phantom magic. Wild card from NC East but the second best team in the National Conference..
:!: 4. Norfolk (169)… Norfolk always puts a competitive team on the table and makes the playoffs every year. But recently, they have been one and out and r00k seems frustrated. The Vipers were very active in FA and also put together a solid draft. The Vipers should win the AC East and play Portland for the conference championship.
:!: 5. Cleveland (163)… Cleveland also fields a competitive team in recent years and when they make the playoffs, they have made a statement. The Clawz play in one of the IFL’s most competitive divisions. Mike has made his mark in a relatively short time here in the IFL. The Clawz win the AC North.
:!: 6. Murfreesboro (160)… Murfreesboro has dominated the AC South for years … the Mules have only missed the playoffs two out of the last ten years and when their ticket is punched each year, they seem to take whatever talent is there to make a lot of noise once the playoffs begin. David will take his team there again by winning the AC South.
:!: 7. West Virginia (156)… A dominant team with a great GM, but Kozure finds that the Beast’s s talent has eroded just a little, plus there is little potential in the bench to improve that situation. Still there seems to enough talent and GM skill to make the Beasts a dangerous team. West Virginia will earn a Wild Card from AC East.
:!: 8. Pennsylvania (155)… Another great team but with an even stronger talent erosion than WV and also little in the tank to improve. The Lions’ strength lies in the fact that it plays in a division that doesn’t have another team coming forward to challenge the declining super power. With that said, Cy Young will again maneuver his team to the NC North crown.
:!: 9. Vancouver (154)… Yes, you heard it right … Vancouver makes the elite list. We see a sleeper that will not only challenge Oakland but should find the muster to better them in the regular season. Not to discount the incredible Assassins’ starters, but the team simply does not have the depth to withstand the injury onslaught that Oakland annually endures. Mark’s Whales are for real … and they have been quietly been building a stable of horses that should take them to the AC West crown this year.
:!: 10. Georgia (153)… another team that has been quietly waiting for its chance to pounce. Well, ol’ man time has finally caught up with the TigerHawks roster especially since all the draft cards were previously played in the “win-now” strategies of Tulsa’s front office. All the while, Beeznik has been hanging around and has built a team just strong enough to displace the TigerHawks this year for the NC South title.
:!: 11. Oakland (149)– The Assassins have some incredible scary talent at some positions and quite a few holes at others. Jave’s goal will be to make the playoffs where that incredible talent can make a statement in a short four game season. The Assassins should get that opportunity as a Wild Card team from the NC West.
:!: 12. Fresno (145)– The only team never to make the playoffs is predicted to slide into a Wild Card slot from the AC West. The team had an off year in its development last year but we see that not happening again this year. Kobeck seasoned leadership should take advantage of the changing dynamics in the AC West where we see Anchorage not up to its usual game this year.
Honorable mention (possible spoilers): Montreal, Iowa City (American Conference), Tulsa (National Conference)
That’s all folks, we tried to compile a balanced analysis that considers all angles … let the friendly debate continue below … and as usual, TB is proud to add to the legacy of this one of a kind league! :thewave:
TB has mad a feeble attempt to predict the elite teams for the 2020 season. A tough task considering no game under regular season conditions has been played yet. We also believe that this may be the most controversial analysis that we have done. We predict that there will be teams that won’t like where they stand up in the ratings. Anyway, consideration was given as follows:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:arrow: Rosters change from year to year through retirement, free agency, and the draft. Yet there are teams that manage to be considered in the elite class year after year. In order to help identify those teams, we ranked each team based on the number of regular season games that it has won for the last three years. Teams with a high ranking would seem to suggest that its GM has the knack to consistently get good results by managing those roster circumstances while incorporating intuitive game planning to complement those changes.
This review’s top five in this category were: West Virginia (37), Tulsa (37), Newark (36), Norfolk (36), Portland (36).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:arrow: Each team’s 53 man roster was then analyzed. Our first pass was to count the number of players on the roster that had a current [b] rating that was at least “good” or a 50. Such players would certainly qualify for starter status. The count provides a rough projection on the “current” strength of a starting lineup. Our next pass was then to look at the 30th highest rated player (using his current rating) on the roster regardless of position. We feel that this bookmark provided a rough idea of how strong the depth chart might be when comparing each thirtieth man to other teams. The cumulative score of these two provided us with strength of roster (as currently rated).
Highest number of players with a current rating of at least a 50: Portland (23), Newark (21), Vancouver (20), lots of teams with (18 )
Current bench strength (at the thirtieth highest player rating): Portland (44), Newark (44), Iowa City (43), lots of teams at (42).
Cumulative Current Strength of Roster: Portland (67), Newark (65), Vancouver (61), Murfreesboro (60), a bunch of teams at (59)
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:arrow: Then we looked at the 53 man rosters’ Future Estimate for ratings. We believe that this study provided a measure on what advances in talent a team could possibly make over the course of the season … advances that may significantly impact a team’s initial roster strength by playoff time.
Highest number of players with a future rating of at least a 50: Lawrence (27), Norfolk (25), Portland (24), Vancouver (24), Newark (22).
Future bench strength rating at the thirtieth position: Lawrence (48 ), Norfolk (47), Portland (46), Newark (44), a bunch of teams at 43.
Cumulative Future Strength of Roster: Lawrence (75), Norfolk (71), Portland (70), Vancouver (67), Newark (66).
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:arrow: Finally, we looked at the playoff history for the last three years for each team. We focused on the number of games played which highlites those teams that seemed to take advantage of the playoff opportunity rather than make the playoffs and be one and done. We also gave extra credit for games won. We believe that teams that ranked high in our spread sheet reflected two things: dominance in a division, and the history of making the best of a playoff opportunity. This gives a power allowance to teams that may not fare as well in the categories stated earlier but do manage to dominate their division year end and year out. Once in the playoffs, anything can happen because it is a short four game season at that point.
The top five teams with strong playoff ratings were: Murfreesboro (14), Pennsylvania (13), West Virginia, Cleveland, Oakland (all with 12).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now just what does this all mean? Well here goes boys and don’t :shoot: the messenger! After we sorted and added all these factors into one spread sheet, this is how it mathematically plays out. It, in turn, becomes our first and infamous preseason prediction for the 2020 playoffs:
2020 PRE-SEASON POWER RATINGS – ELITE STATUS (the 2020 playoff teams)
:!: 1. Portland (181)… clearly the team to beat (and maybe that is why they are the current IFL champs and why they surprised everyone last year). Jeff is seasoned game planner and makes use of the tons of talent on the team. We do not see any weaknesses. The Seals should win the AC West and represent the AC in the IFL Bowl and are a favorite to repeat.
:!: 2. Newark (175)… Matt fields another juggernaut that is very comparable to the strengths of Portland. The strength of their division could be problematic however. Regardless, the Bulldogs should win the NC East and should find itself in a rematch with the Seals in the Bowl.
:!: 3. Lawrence (172)… Lawrence’s starters are just a step behind division rival Newark. The team’s hidden strength is in its bench and with Jester at the controls, one can expect some Phantom magic. Wild card from NC East but the second best team in the National Conference..
:!: 4. Norfolk (169)… Norfolk always puts a competitive team on the table and makes the playoffs every year. But recently, they have been one and out and r00k seems frustrated. The Vipers were very active in FA and also put together a solid draft. The Vipers should win the AC East and play Portland for the conference championship.
:!: 5. Cleveland (163)… Cleveland also fields a competitive team in recent years and when they make the playoffs, they have made a statement. The Clawz play in one of the IFL’s most competitive divisions. Mike has made his mark in a relatively short time here in the IFL. The Clawz win the AC North.
:!: 6. Murfreesboro (160)… Murfreesboro has dominated the AC South for years … the Mules have only missed the playoffs two out of the last ten years and when their ticket is punched each year, they seem to take whatever talent is there to make a lot of noise once the playoffs begin. David will take his team there again by winning the AC South.
:!: 7. West Virginia (156)… A dominant team with a great GM, but Kozure finds that the Beast’s s talent has eroded just a little, plus there is little potential in the bench to improve that situation. Still there seems to enough talent and GM skill to make the Beasts a dangerous team. West Virginia will earn a Wild Card from AC East.
:!: 8. Pennsylvania (155)… Another great team but with an even stronger talent erosion than WV and also little in the tank to improve. The Lions’ strength lies in the fact that it plays in a division that doesn’t have another team coming forward to challenge the declining super power. With that said, Cy Young will again maneuver his team to the NC North crown.
:!: 9. Vancouver (154)… Yes, you heard it right … Vancouver makes the elite list. We see a sleeper that will not only challenge Oakland but should find the muster to better them in the regular season. Not to discount the incredible Assassins’ starters, but the team simply does not have the depth to withstand the injury onslaught that Oakland annually endures. Mark’s Whales are for real … and they have been quietly been building a stable of horses that should take them to the AC West crown this year.
:!: 10. Georgia (153)… another team that has been quietly waiting for its chance to pounce. Well, ol’ man time has finally caught up with the TigerHawks roster especially since all the draft cards were previously played in the “win-now” strategies of Tulsa’s front office. All the while, Beeznik has been hanging around and has built a team just strong enough to displace the TigerHawks this year for the NC South title.
:!: 11. Oakland (149)– The Assassins have some incredible scary talent at some positions and quite a few holes at others. Jave’s goal will be to make the playoffs where that incredible talent can make a statement in a short four game season. The Assassins should get that opportunity as a Wild Card team from the NC West.
:!: 12. Fresno (145)– The only team never to make the playoffs is predicted to slide into a Wild Card slot from the AC West. The team had an off year in its development last year but we see that not happening again this year. Kobeck seasoned leadership should take advantage of the changing dynamics in the AC West where we see Anchorage not up to its usual game this year.
Honorable mention (possible spoilers): Montreal, Iowa City (American Conference), Tulsa (National Conference)
That’s all folks, we tried to compile a balanced analysis that considers all angles … let the friendly debate continue below … and as usual, TB is proud to add to the legacy of this one of a kind league! :thewave:
and lets get this thing rolling!
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