Tweet
A lot of people will be familiar with EPA, but in case you are not, EPA stands for Expected Points Added. It is a method for attributing a value to a team's play that quantifies something that probably everyone understands: possessing the ball closer to the opponent's goal line is more valuable than possession further away. This was first codified in the 1970's in an expected points model, and later extended to account for different context in the game state. EPA is a play level analysis which simply states did this play make it more or less likely that the offense will score?
EPA is not directly calculable from the statistics output by the FOF8 engine, so for this purpose I trained a model on c.860k FOF8 multiplayer plays in order to be able to calculate the EP & EPA analysis many people will be familiar with from the TV coverage of football, as well as the many podcasts, YouTube channels, etc. which include an element of analytics in their analysis. This thread contains some visualization and leaderboards for team level EPA analysis. Player-level EPA will be addressed in a future thread.
This scatter graph shows the relative strengths and weaknesses of every teams' offense and defense over the 2076 regular season.
It's quite difficult to be good at offense and defense, so congratulations to those teams in the upper right quarter. Kansas's defense is intriguing, as is Texas, who are the only real defense specialist in the playoffs. Overall, the NC has more offense specialists this year, while the AC has more balanced power teams, although Vegas are an exception.
EPA is not directly calculable from the statistics output by the FOF8 engine, so for this purpose I trained a model on c.860k FOF8 multiplayer plays in order to be able to calculate the EP & EPA analysis many people will be familiar with from the TV coverage of football, as well as the many podcasts, YouTube channels, etc. which include an element of analytics in their analysis. This thread contains some visualization and leaderboards for team level EPA analysis. Player-level EPA will be addressed in a future thread.
This scatter graph shows the relative strengths and weaknesses of every teams' offense and defense over the 2076 regular season.
It's quite difficult to be good at offense and defense, so congratulations to those teams in the upper right quarter. Kansas's defense is intriguing, as is Texas, who are the only real defense specialist in the playoffs. Overall, the NC has more offense specialists this year, while the AC has more balanced power teams, although Vegas are an exception.
Comment