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Following up on my other post covering the AC playoff picture let's look at the situation over in the NC.
As with the AC post please bear with me if there any errors and I'll do my best to fix any problems as quickly as possible.
NC NORTH
Dakota (9-4)
Remaining games: Madison, Anchorage, at Pennsylvania
One more victory is all the Spirit needs to clinch the division but all three remaining games will be a challenge as their opponents fight for their own playoff spots. Dakota can actually lose all their remaining games and still qualify for a wild card spot as long as Arizona drops their last three games and Salt Lake City wins no more than one game.
When QB Luther Montemayor blew out his knee in Week 1 projecting Dakota to win the NC North would have been a bold prediction. And yet here we are just one win away from that reality. What makes it all the more remarkable is that the Spirit lost their backup, Dave Finch, to injury too. Career backup Finch led the Spirit to a 7-2 record a QBR of 110.0 and was averaging 8.51 yards per attempt before separating his shoulder in week 13...and then getting released in Week 14! Former Championship Game MVP Edwin Hyman now has the controls but his best days seem long ago.
Pennsylvania (7-6)
Remaining games: Lansing, at Portland, Dakota
It's a big ask for Pennsylvania to make the playoffs: they can win their next three games (including against Dakota in Week 17) finish 10-6 and still miss the playoffs if Arizona beats Calgary in Week 17. Don't ask me to break it down but it would come down to the 4th tie-breaker which is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference". So for the Lions to play in the post-season they have to win the division which means they need Dakota to drop three in a row. While it is possible given who the Spirit have to play and with Hyman forced to start at QB for them but it's going to take a monumental effort to get there.
Like Dakota, Pennsylvania is also on to their 3rd QB of the season with mid-season signee Ed Wilkins at the helm. Even though Wilkins lost his first start in Week 9 against Orlando of all teams he has now won five in a row to turn the Lions' season around.
Madison (7-6)
Remaining games: at Dakota, at Los Angeles, at Lansing
Three tough road games for the Demons, all three of which are must-wins for them to have a chance at the post-season. A division title can be theirs if they go 3-0, Dakota goes 0-3 and Pennsylvania loses their next two games but beat Dakota in Week 17. If they run the table but miss out on the division they have better wild card prospects than Pennsylvania since they beat Arizona in Week 3 (first tiebreaker: Head-to-head play) but they will still need Arizona to go 1-2 down the stretch for that to happen.
The Demons have won their last two games to keep their playoff hopes alive and rookie QB Owen Whalen has played consistently in both games. Can he step it up and keep Madison's playoff hopes alive?
Lansing (2-11)
Remaining games: at Pennsylvania, Fresno, Madison
The Ogres are in the hunt for the top pick of the next draft but could still spoil the party for Pennsylvania and/or Madison
NC SOUTH
Texas (6-7)
Remaining games: at Georgia, Houston, at Tulsa
Texas wins the NC South title with three wins and has no prospect for a wild card if they don't. Even without three more wins the Trojans control their own destiny as long as they win at least as many games as Little Rock as they hold the tie-breakers over them
QB Dan Lester is the engine that powers the Trojans and will pass for over 5000 yards on the season at his current pace. Texas needs Lester to keep the ball moving because they are getting no help from their defense (392.8 yards a game surrendered, 31st in the league).
Little Rock (6-7)
Remaining games: at Tulsa, New Orleans, Georgia
For the Thunder to make the postseason they will need Georgia, Houston and Tulsa to defeat Texas in the last three weeks AND find a way to avoid the same fate when they play Tulsa, New Orleans and Georgia. No chance of a wild card here, it's keep winning to stay alive and hope someone can knock off the Trojans.
After a rocky start QB Albert Gianettino is having his best season as a starter but offensively it's been the Thunder running game that has kept them competitive this season.
Georgia (5-8)
Remaining games: Texas, at St Louis, at Little Rock
Georgia needs what Little Rock wants and then needs the same thing for Little Rock too. Georgia has to win it's remaining games and hope that both Texas and Little Rock start losing. That may be too much to ask for but with the Generals playing both the Trojans and Thunder in the last few weeks it's likely that the winner of the division will be decided by Georgia.
A six game losing streak early in the season put the Generals in a deep hole and QB Bryant Bruce has been trying to get them out. With the loss of WR Dexter Crapo during the off season the veteran signal caller hasn't had the weapons he needs at his disposal and at this stage the team looks more like a spoiler than a contender.
Tulsa (3-9-1)
Remaining games: Little Rock, Murfreesboro, Texas
Could pull off an upset and change the fortunes for Little Rock or Texas but otherwise the Tigerhawks are just spectators this time around.
NC EAST
Orlando (13-0)
Remaining games: Massachussets, at Columbia, Newark
No-one wants to play the Beast in the East and even though they have yet to clinch their division does anyone doubt that they will? They are in complete control of their playoffs and one more win will give them the division and home field advantage.
Is it really fair that the Pirates lead the league in points scored and points allowed? Looking at just those two metrics the average game played by Orlando is won by them 32-15.Боже мой!
Newark (10-3)
Remaining games: at Vermont, Norfolk, at Orlando
To win the division Norfolk needs three wins and they need to see Orlando lose three straight games. So the Bulldogs are basically playing for the wild card spot which they can secure with one more win or a loss by Salt Lake City.
QB Travis Kennedy has played well but missed time to injury forcing backup Antonio Tyler to start five games. It doesn't matter who's playing QB for WR Kenyon Ellard because all he does is catch touchdown passes.
Massachussets (5-8)
Remaining games: at Orlando, Hartford, Vermont
On the outside looking in, the only way the Maruders can influence the playoffs from here is if they spark a three-game losing streak for Orlando.
Vermont (2-11)
Remaining games: Newark, at West Virginia, at Massachussets
Out of contention this year, playing for next year's 1.1 but with so many picks in the first three rounds could be back in the thick of things a whole lot sooner than anyone might expect.
NC WEST
Vancouver (10-3)
Remaining games: Arizona, at Cleveland, Salt Lake City
Even though they lead the division, Arizona holds the tie-breaker against the Killer Whales and their game this week will be the match of the week with the winner in the box seat for the division title. Vancouver has a tough stretch with three playoff contenders but needs just one more victory for a ticket to the post season.
The Orca's "catch and run" offense is lead by savvy veteran QB Dwight Mahe and is tough to get off the field but with Mahe now out for four weeks question marks hang over the team.
Arizona (9-4)
Remaining games: at Vancouver, London, Calgary
If Argot's Wolfpack can find a way to beat the Killer Whales next week they have a good chance of cruising home with the division title as they close out the regular season with winnable games against London and Calgary. Two more wins will guarantee them a wild card as will one win and two losses by Salt Lake City.
It's been yet another QB story here with veteran QB Wesley May fighting his way back into the starting line up against unheralded backups Kelvin Turnbull and Douglas Crane. While the backups have the better QBRs when the playoffs are on the line you have to go with the guy that has the big red bars.
Salt Lake City (8-5)
Remaining games: at Calgary, Montreal, at Vancouver
The Stallions need three wins and some help or two wins a whole lot more help to punch their ticket for the playoffs. Not only does Vito's team need to keep winning but they need Arizona and/or Newark to start losing a lot. Technically they can still win the division if Vancouver goes 0-3, Arizona goes 1-2 and Salt Lake City goes 3-0 but at this stage they just have to win and hope they get the help they need to secure that last wild card spot.
After starting the season as the second coming of Daryle Lamonica, QB Gabe Patterson has cooled off and gone 1-4 over the last five weeks. He needs to find his form if the Stallions want to make it to the post-season
Calgary (6-7)
Remaining games: Salt Lake City, Iowa City, Arizona
The Stampeders can derail the playoff run of three teams and at least have the satisfaction of sending one or more of them home for the post season. This is a team that has beaten opponents that will be in the post-season and will be a tough opponent at this point in the season.
A tough defense led by DE Sean Tyler and an offense that features the best TE in the league in Albert Horne.
If the playoffs started today:
NC North: Dakota (3)
NC South: Texas (4)
NC East: Orlando (1)
NC West: Vancouver (2)
Wild Cards; Newark (5), Arizona (6)
Wildcard Round: Dakota vs Arizona, Texas vs Newark
As with the AC post please bear with me if there any errors and I'll do my best to fix any problems as quickly as possible.
NC NORTH
Dakota (9-4)
Remaining games: Madison, Anchorage, at Pennsylvania
One more victory is all the Spirit needs to clinch the division but all three remaining games will be a challenge as their opponents fight for their own playoff spots. Dakota can actually lose all their remaining games and still qualify for a wild card spot as long as Arizona drops their last three games and Salt Lake City wins no more than one game.
When QB Luther Montemayor blew out his knee in Week 1 projecting Dakota to win the NC North would have been a bold prediction. And yet here we are just one win away from that reality. What makes it all the more remarkable is that the Spirit lost their backup, Dave Finch, to injury too. Career backup Finch led the Spirit to a 7-2 record a QBR of 110.0 and was averaging 8.51 yards per attempt before separating his shoulder in week 13...and then getting released in Week 14! Former Championship Game MVP Edwin Hyman now has the controls but his best days seem long ago.
Pennsylvania (7-6)
Remaining games: Lansing, at Portland, Dakota
It's a big ask for Pennsylvania to make the playoffs: they can win their next three games (including against Dakota in Week 17) finish 10-6 and still miss the playoffs if Arizona beats Calgary in Week 17. Don't ask me to break it down but it would come down to the 4th tie-breaker which is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference". So for the Lions to play in the post-season they have to win the division which means they need Dakota to drop three in a row. While it is possible given who the Spirit have to play and with Hyman forced to start at QB for them but it's going to take a monumental effort to get there.
Like Dakota, Pennsylvania is also on to their 3rd QB of the season with mid-season signee Ed Wilkins at the helm. Even though Wilkins lost his first start in Week 9 against Orlando of all teams he has now won five in a row to turn the Lions' season around.
Madison (7-6)
Remaining games: at Dakota, at Los Angeles, at Lansing
Three tough road games for the Demons, all three of which are must-wins for them to have a chance at the post-season. A division title can be theirs if they go 3-0, Dakota goes 0-3 and Pennsylvania loses their next two games but beat Dakota in Week 17. If they run the table but miss out on the division they have better wild card prospects than Pennsylvania since they beat Arizona in Week 3 (first tiebreaker: Head-to-head play) but they will still need Arizona to go 1-2 down the stretch for that to happen.
The Demons have won their last two games to keep their playoff hopes alive and rookie QB Owen Whalen has played consistently in both games. Can he step it up and keep Madison's playoff hopes alive?
Lansing (2-11)
Remaining games: at Pennsylvania, Fresno, Madison
The Ogres are in the hunt for the top pick of the next draft but could still spoil the party for Pennsylvania and/or Madison
NC SOUTH
Texas (6-7)
Remaining games: at Georgia, Houston, at Tulsa
Texas wins the NC South title with three wins and has no prospect for a wild card if they don't. Even without three more wins the Trojans control their own destiny as long as they win at least as many games as Little Rock as they hold the tie-breakers over them
QB Dan Lester is the engine that powers the Trojans and will pass for over 5000 yards on the season at his current pace. Texas needs Lester to keep the ball moving because they are getting no help from their defense (392.8 yards a game surrendered, 31st in the league).
Little Rock (6-7)
Remaining games: at Tulsa, New Orleans, Georgia
For the Thunder to make the postseason they will need Georgia, Houston and Tulsa to defeat Texas in the last three weeks AND find a way to avoid the same fate when they play Tulsa, New Orleans and Georgia. No chance of a wild card here, it's keep winning to stay alive and hope someone can knock off the Trojans.
After a rocky start QB Albert Gianettino is having his best season as a starter but offensively it's been the Thunder running game that has kept them competitive this season.
Georgia (5-8)
Remaining games: Texas, at St Louis, at Little Rock
Georgia needs what Little Rock wants and then needs the same thing for Little Rock too. Georgia has to win it's remaining games and hope that both Texas and Little Rock start losing. That may be too much to ask for but with the Generals playing both the Trojans and Thunder in the last few weeks it's likely that the winner of the division will be decided by Georgia.
A six game losing streak early in the season put the Generals in a deep hole and QB Bryant Bruce has been trying to get them out. With the loss of WR Dexter Crapo during the off season the veteran signal caller hasn't had the weapons he needs at his disposal and at this stage the team looks more like a spoiler than a contender.
Tulsa (3-9-1)
Remaining games: Little Rock, Murfreesboro, Texas
Could pull off an upset and change the fortunes for Little Rock or Texas but otherwise the Tigerhawks are just spectators this time around.
NC EAST
Orlando (13-0)
Remaining games: Massachussets, at Columbia, Newark
No-one wants to play the Beast in the East and even though they have yet to clinch their division does anyone doubt that they will? They are in complete control of their playoffs and one more win will give them the division and home field advantage.
Is it really fair that the Pirates lead the league in points scored and points allowed? Looking at just those two metrics the average game played by Orlando is won by them 32-15.Боже мой!
Newark (10-3)
Remaining games: at Vermont, Norfolk, at Orlando
To win the division Norfolk needs three wins and they need to see Orlando lose three straight games. So the Bulldogs are basically playing for the wild card spot which they can secure with one more win or a loss by Salt Lake City.
QB Travis Kennedy has played well but missed time to injury forcing backup Antonio Tyler to start five games. It doesn't matter who's playing QB for WR Kenyon Ellard because all he does is catch touchdown passes.
Massachussets (5-8)
Remaining games: at Orlando, Hartford, Vermont
On the outside looking in, the only way the Maruders can influence the playoffs from here is if they spark a three-game losing streak for Orlando.
Vermont (2-11)
Remaining games: Newark, at West Virginia, at Massachussets
Out of contention this year, playing for next year's 1.1 but with so many picks in the first three rounds could be back in the thick of things a whole lot sooner than anyone might expect.
NC WEST
Vancouver (10-3)
Remaining games: Arizona, at Cleveland, Salt Lake City
Even though they lead the division, Arizona holds the tie-breaker against the Killer Whales and their game this week will be the match of the week with the winner in the box seat for the division title. Vancouver has a tough stretch with three playoff contenders but needs just one more victory for a ticket to the post season.
The Orca's "catch and run" offense is lead by savvy veteran QB Dwight Mahe and is tough to get off the field but with Mahe now out for four weeks question marks hang over the team.
Arizona (9-4)
Remaining games: at Vancouver, London, Calgary
If Argot's Wolfpack can find a way to beat the Killer Whales next week they have a good chance of cruising home with the division title as they close out the regular season with winnable games against London and Calgary. Two more wins will guarantee them a wild card as will one win and two losses by Salt Lake City.
It's been yet another QB story here with veteran QB Wesley May fighting his way back into the starting line up against unheralded backups Kelvin Turnbull and Douglas Crane. While the backups have the better QBRs when the playoffs are on the line you have to go with the guy that has the big red bars.
Salt Lake City (8-5)
Remaining games: at Calgary, Montreal, at Vancouver
The Stallions need three wins and some help or two wins a whole lot more help to punch their ticket for the playoffs. Not only does Vito's team need to keep winning but they need Arizona and/or Newark to start losing a lot. Technically they can still win the division if Vancouver goes 0-3, Arizona goes 1-2 and Salt Lake City goes 3-0 but at this stage they just have to win and hope they get the help they need to secure that last wild card spot.
After starting the season as the second coming of Daryle Lamonica, QB Gabe Patterson has cooled off and gone 1-4 over the last five weeks. He needs to find his form if the Stallions want to make it to the post-season
Calgary (6-7)
Remaining games: Salt Lake City, Iowa City, Arizona
The Stampeders can derail the playoff run of three teams and at least have the satisfaction of sending one or more of them home for the post season. This is a team that has beaten opponents that will be in the post-season and will be a tough opponent at this point in the season.
A tough defense led by DE Sean Tyler and an offense that features the best TE in the league in Albert Horne.
If the playoffs started today:
NC North: Dakota (3)
NC South: Texas (4)
NC East: Orlando (1)
NC West: Vancouver (2)
Wild Cards; Newark (5), Arizona (6)
Wildcard Round: Dakota vs Arizona, Texas vs Newark
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