Strategy Discussion: Throwing short of the 1st Down marker on 3rd Down.

[JesterBlaze]

This is a killer of many teams. I'm not saying there are never reasons to do it (though none come to mind) but there's teams that hand over 2 or more possessions per game like this. From what I can tell, if you're throwing short on 3rd and 8+ then you're not even requiring my defense to stop you. You're stopping yourself and might as well punt on 3rd and avoid the chance at an INT. I know the defense is expecting a longer pass but that's what you need and it is what it is at that point.

I can see maybe trying a screen pass based on certain criteria but the general 0-4 yard pass setting seems to = forfeit.

[Argot]

Agreed.

[tarcone]

Hmmmm. Not sure. I think sometimes there is a check down. Which is something you cant do anything about.
Other times, it may be just for field position. No team can be perfect on 3rd downs every game. Is it better to throw a pick 18 yards down the field or complete a 3 yard pass and punt it 45 yards?
And what about YAC? a lot of those 3 yard passes will turn into 15 yard pass plays when the defense is looking long. Opens up the short pass for longer gains. If you have the WRs to do it.

I think these are good reasons to use the short pass.

[JesterBlaze]

Is it better to throw a pick 18 yards down the field or complete a 3 yard pass and punt it 45 yards?

You're talking a single result against a single result. Before the result I'll take the 18 yard attempt over the 3 yard attempt every time. Over 100 tries, you're punting roughly 100 times unless the defense makes a mistake. I'm getting some first downs... how many is to be seen.

[tarcone]

You're talking a single result against a single result. Before the result I'll take the 18 yard attempt over the 3 yard attempt every time. Over 100 tries, you're punting roughly 100 times unless the defense makes a mistake. I'm getting some first downs... how many is to be seen.

I have no data to back up my statements. So take this for what it is.
I dont advocate throwing 3 yards every time. But there are times it is successful. I know, because I am not afraid to throw short on 3rd down. And you can manipulate the passes by toning the pass distance boxes way down. My short passes are in the 5-9 range by a LARGE margin. But I dont zero out the 0-4 (Im afraid too). So on 3rd and 7, I may throw 5 yards and hope for the 2 yards of YAC (I like WRs with a high GD).
I like the 18 yard pass also. But it is a riskier throw, esp. when teams are looking for it. If a team is in 3 deep zone or even M2M, a short pass can be just as successful as an 18 yarder, if not moreso.
Again, I have no data backing these assertions. Just anecdotal.

[JesterBlaze]

If a team is in 3 deep zone or even M2M, a short pass can be just as successful as an 18 yarder, if not moreso.

I haven't reached the end yet but the 1st link that Matt provided in the "SDC" thread states that, according to FOFC research, the 3 deep zone is just as effective against the short pass as any other set (or something like that - I hate to paraphrase from a memory that sucks).

You've made me realize that it stands to be said that this thread was started by a guy who rarely double covers so YAC aren't as big a concern for me as I'd guess the average to be. After every opponent catch I get into my Rocky Theme phrame of mind and sign "Take 'em down... do do do dooh... take 'em down... do do do dooh... I don't know the reason... they beggin' to give me pleasin'... take 'em down... do do do doooh"

[Brando]

Hmmmm. Not sure. I think sometimes there is a check down. Which is something you cant do anything about.
Other times, it may be just for field position. No team can be perfect on 3rd downs every game. Is it better to throw a pick 18 yards down the field or complete a 3 yard pass and punt it 45 yards?
And what about YAC? a lot of those 3 yard passes will turn into 15 yard pass plays when the defense is looking long. Opens up the short pass for longer gains. If you have the WRs to do it.

I think these are good reasons to use the short pass.

I think you're right about the check-down. When I tinkered around with single player where you can call all the plays in Solevision, the passing plays would be like "Shotgun TE out 11 yards, RB out 2 yards." Most of the time the ball goes to the primary, but if the QB checks down to the RB out 2, that's kind of what you're stuck with. I rarely remember seeing the ball go to receivers outside of the two guys listed in the play name, so you may end up throwing it short, even when a long pass is called. I don't know if the game is actually calling these plays when it's run by the coach in multi-player, but I kind of suspect that's what's happening sometimes.