Strategy Discussion: Draft SLOT management. Don't spend $1.05 for a $1 item!!!

[JesterBlaze]

Since I think education (for all of us including myself who has plenty to learn if you're willing to teach) is a much better equalizer than anything else I'm opening up a few threads for discussion. I'm copy/pasting this 1st entry into all because I'm not going to speak on any subject until others have since this is intended to be a discussion, not a simple 1 to many lesson from someone who doesn't know it all.

[Kobeck]

while I agree with this in theory I find it hard to trade down and usually unwilling to pay the price to trade up. So I draft my slot. Always hoping to get to the point that BPA is the best choice for my team, but only had that situation a few times

[JesterBlaze]

Every draft a GM should rate each player very precisely, meaning so and so is a #1 Overall, a 2-5, a 6-10, etc... and only take that player at or beyond that slot (barring extenuating circumstances such as what brought me to take a K in Rd 1 this past draft). If someone jumps in front of you and takes him that shouldn't bother you that much because it was a mistake (by your judgement which is always correct right? ) even if only a small one (a mistake by any measure is still a mistake).

Matt brought up the success of his 6th rounder today. There are many quality IFL players who came out of the 7th round. These are picks not hard to get from many GMs but have a small chance of success. Just like mistakes a small chance of success is still a chance.

The top 10 itself holds so much power that it's INSANE to take a guy a #2 that you could have got at #4. GMs pay high 2nd rounders++ for that jump! But don't think it's not also a mistake to take a guy at 200 that you could have got at 223 along with the rights to Mr. Irrelevant at 224 after a trade of 200 for 223 and 224.


And here's the killer of all that many even announce: "I'm torn between 2 players so I'm just gonna pick one". What!!?!?!?!? Being torn between 2 players means you're either...

1) Making a move to move up and grab both
2) Dropping back slowly little by little until you estimate that it's time to take the remaining 1.
3) Making a huge mistake that will bite you in the ass whether you see it coming or even recognize it happened.

This discussion connects very closely to the resource management one. There's only 1 way players enter the league in FOF: The draft. Every single other player is a retread. The draft is your strongest resource and to get 53 quality players every season you need to draft 5.3 quality players with 10 year careers per season every 10 seasons. Picture a wonderful draft of 4 quality players... you're still short a full quality roster if you do this every season!!! Though I'll admit my numbers here are for the elusive, maybe fictitious, Holy Grail of 53 quality players, this is what your aim is right? As Bill Parcells says "You don't expect the prototype, but you don't change what your aim is" or something like that.



Stepping back to let the natives join in the conversation. As stated on all of these I'm not attempting to give a 1 person "lesson" (I quote lesson not because I don't have confidence in what I'm saying but because nothing I say is be-all end-all)...

[JesterBlaze]

One more thing though. I believe you're almost never slotted exactly where you're best option of players to pick is intelligently projected to go. In a given draft I feel 200 of the 224 choices should be traded at some point (sorry Matt/r00k if this adds an intense amount of legwork in 2025 but it's my honest POV).

[Matt]

couldn't agree more about being torn between players. I think I took that strategy from you many years ago. the only question is to find a dancing partner.

[JesterBlaze]

Good point on the dance partner. I should also point out that, since it only takes one out of 32, there should almost always be someone who's in position to benefit from trading up. Though that move is against the grain in and of itself, there are always many, many, many variables dancing through the equations. If you need a quality player at a certain position (Phantoms K in this past draft) and believe you're gonna end up ass out as your rival takes him this draft... well the fact that your rival has a similar need is a HUGE exception to the norm (and he should recognize this also). The term bidding war comes to mind and you should weight that, but again give it an exact weight and anything over that is a mistake, even if your rival gets the player at a slightly higher value than you registered... if you're correct.

[Argot]

Yeah...the dance partner thing is what finally led me to just pick the BPA where I sit. I have not had good luck in finding the right people online to get where I need to go...for instance...I might find someone to drop down, but then can't find anyone to get back up when I think I dropped too far and there is a run on the players I wanted. and then too many times I can't find anyone to move up and am stuck on the clock while people wait, but then I might be overly sensitive to sitting on the clock making others wait.

[tarcone]

This is a subjective subject. While Player A may be worth $1.00 to you, he may be worth $1.05 to me.
This is true in trading, also.
Now, Im not advocating picking a K in the 1st round. Thats just silly. ( ). But if a good player is the type of guy that fits my system, I have no problem drafting them. You may think it was a reach, but to me it might be the perfect fit.

[JesterBlaze]

While Player A may be worth $1.00 to you, he may be worth $1.05 to me.

Not being clear is my specialty. What you're saying is exactly my point. Everyone's draft board is different and should promote a LOT more trading than we see. However, going by your own board, what I've said applies IMO.

I should add though that you should also balance your own value against the expected value. If you know you're the only one looking at K, something maybe I should have recognized this past draft, then the proper place to pick is right before the 1st of the rest would pick said player.

[JesterBlaze]

I'm glad you brought up the K as I wouldn't have thought of it but talking about myself will raise no defensive walls. Only a short time after our draft and it's already obvious that I reached. I hurt my team Big Time with that move. I'll probably survive because I usually get the $1.00 for $0.56 but this time I lost change and have to utilize multiple other moves to make up for it.

My Carlos Mears trade was also an example where I think I paid a bit more. More along the lines of $1.03 for $1.00 but a slight overpay nonetheless. Not being a big trader/negotiator I tend to do this to save time. I don't like a lot of back and forth on trade discussions. Too much time wasted on a single roster spot.

[Pirates]

The hardest part of trading up is perceived value. I have seen owners ask for an outrageous amount of picks to move up in the first. What happens is someone will always pay so the value becomes expected. Now, I will say if you can get someone to pay then more power to you. I just won't mortgage the future to move up spots. I would rather take the BPA now.

[JesterBlaze]

In an attempt to help: It sounds like it's not the hardest part, but the hardest to accept. If the value to move up isn't what you calculate (not feel) it to be then you simply don't move up. You're right not to mortgage the basic future as a general way of doing business, but if you're the London, Portland, etc. of 2024 then maybe it's worth that fully developed player (coincidentally which you took this off-season) to get you over the edge at the expense of the future. I personally think the expense of Jave trading that WR to London came to fruition in the post-season last season. With him things are different, no maybe... the only question is whether the difference is enough to get them over the hump, which is a totally separate tier. While there are many post-season teams and, yes, each has a "puncher's chance", there are usually about 3 who have a legit "odds on" chance of winning the IFL Bowl... and that's the tier you want to be in.

But that's where I differ from the norm somewhat in that I think the best players in the draft are not fundamentals to build on (fundamental theory and a solid roster plan are much more important) but "over the top" balance-tippers for the post-season teams. I'm backwards that way.

[JesterBlaze]

I have seen owners ask for an outrageous amount of picks to move up in the first. What happens is someone will always pay so the value becomes expected.

Another point is that not all drafts are the same and some owners can't even talk out of their ass.. they repeat what came out of a previous trades' ass as if it has any bearing on the current situation at hand.

I love the IFL and our GMs but this is just fact.

[Pirates]

Another point is that not all drafts are the same and some owners can't even talk out of their ass.. they repeat what came out of a previous trades' ass as if it has any bearing on the current situation at hand.

I love the IFL and our GMs but this is just fact.

I am with you on that. Great set of owners here. And I am not knocking guys for trying to get the most for players or picks. Heck it is a free market and I wouldn't change it. Just it is not easy to move all over the draft.

Keep the write ups coming!!

[VitoStallion]

These discussions should help promote moving around in the draft as more guys grasp the concepts.

Course, I move around and blow my $1 on a 10-cent bum all the time