Playoff Scenarios

[hawkster]

I'm ignoring the possibility of ties in these scenarios

AC-

West Virginia has clinched a playoff berth and homefield advantage throughout

Cleveland -
Has clinched the AC North and at least the #3 seed
Can clinch the #2 seed with a win OR a Portland loss

Portland -
Has clinched the AC West and at least the #3 seed
Can clinch the #2 seed with a win AND a Cleveland loss

St. Louis-
Can clinch the AC South with a win OR a Louisiana loss
A loss AND a Lousiana win will eliminate St. Louis because of the tie breaker advantage that Hartford, Albuquerque, Norfolk, and Anchorage has over them

Louisiana-
Can clinch the AC South with a win AND a St. Louis loss
Can clinch a WC spot with a win AND a Norfolk loss
A loss will eliminate Louisiana

Hartford-
Can clinch WC spot with a win
I can't see any scenario that eliminates Hartford because of their conference record. There could potentially be 4 9-7 teams and Hartford is only at a disadvantage to Louisiana.

Norfolk
Can clinch WC spot with a win AND an Albuquerque loss
If Albuquerque wins, the Norfolk needs Louisiana to win to force the 4 team 9-7 scenario and hope they win the tiebreakers. (This is all way too complex to predict due to things like strength of victory and similar game comparisons and the like because no single team emerges thanks to basic head to head and conference/division record tiebreakers keeping everyone on level ground)


Albuquerque-
Can clinch WC spot with a win AND either a Hartford loss OR a Louisiana loss
If the 4 team 9-7 scenario occurs, then Albuquerque should get in thanks to their conference record
If Albuquerque loses, chances are they are out, but there is a slim chance if Louisiana and Norfolk both lose that out of the 8-8 teams Albuquerque might emerge with the spot, it all depends on the massive tiebreaker scenario involving Anchorage, Louisiana, Norfolk, Albuquerque and potentially Fresno or St. Louis

Anchorage-
In order to have a shot Anchorage must win AND Norfolk must lose AND Louisiana must lose and then hope that the tiebreak scenario goes their way with the 4 or more 8-8 teams that would result.

Fresno-
In order to have a shot Fresno must win AND Norfolk must lost AND Louisiana must lose AND Albuquerque must lose and then hope that the tiebreak scenario goes their with with the 5 or more 8-8 teams that would result.

I'm going to let someone else do up the NC, there are just way too many possibilities on both sides because of the potential for a pool of teams to end up with the same record.

[Cringer]

nice breakdown...

[sovstar]

nice banner...

[Warhammer]

This is where things get interesting, when I was trying to do my breakdown I checked the NFL rules for tie-breaks for the WC. Basically what you do is:

For Three or more teams
1) For all tied teams within a division, conduct a divisional tiebreak between the two teams, the highest seed team in the division gets the first shot at the wild card.
2) Check for head-to-head sweeps
3) Conference record
4) Best record vs. common opponents (min. 4)
5) Strength of wins
6) Schedule strength
etc.

For Hartford my problem is in the Louisiana, Albuquerque, and Norfolk scenario. In that case, Norfolk gets the #2 spot in my division due to their 5-3 record against common opponents (I am 4-4). Once they are taken out of the equation, they get the advantage in that they beat both Louisiana and Albuquerque (IIRC). Then in the ensuing Louisiana, Albuquerque, and Hartford battle for the WC, Louisiana gets the nod due to beating both Hartford and Albuquerque.

The key factor in all of this is whether FOF figures in the division seed before determining the WC positions. I do not believe FOF does this because otherwise it would be impossible for Fresno to finish above #4 in the AC South if Anchorage beats Albuquerque. This is due to Fresno's divisional record. In the WC determination, divisional record does not matter, outside of the seeding of teams within a division.

If the division seed is not figured first, then I have a great shot at making the playoffs since my conference record would be tied with Albuquerque. In that case, Albuquerque should get the #5 seed since they have a better record against common opponents (4-1 v. 2-3, again IIRC, paperwork at home). In the tie-break between Norfolk, Louisiana, and myself, I would have the best conference record.

http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

This is the website that outlines the tie-breaking procedures in the NFL.

Also, remember that in any case of a tie between St. Louis and Louisiana, St. Louis gets the divisional crown and is not considered as part of the WC race.

NOTE: I looked at Norfolk's record against Alb. and Lou. It looks like they are 1-1 there, so the head to head sweep would not be in effect. The conference record then comes into play, and Albuquerque wins that tie-break. So a 4-way Albuquerque, Louisiana, Hartford, and Norfolk tie break gives Albuquerque the #5 seed, and Norfolk the #6 due to their head to head win over Louisiana. Again, if the tie-break rule #1 is in effect. If not, then Hartford gets the #6 seed.

Does anyone know how FOF figures this out?

[sovstar]

Does anyone know how FOF figures this out?

Gosh, I'd hope that FOF follows the NFL system exactly so that something is set in stone and these scenarios you and hawkster have created actually mean something.

Like I mentioned to roadrash in a different thread, I've tried to do some research on the subject, mainly over at the IHOF boards. The most positive thing I've found was a thread where one of the IHOF owners was breaking down all of the tiebreakers and Jim jumped into the discussion. He only added that he was also trying to figure out some of the tiebreak situations himself. Not much, but he did NOT discredit any of the scenarios that the thread starter had come up with leading me to believe that the NFL system is precisely followed.

To answer your question, no.

[FargoBison]

How come nobody does one of these for the NC . . . i dont feel i am qualified nor knowledgeable enough about this game to know what the different situations and results could be. All i nnow is for me (Fargo) to make it i need to win this week.

[sovstar]

How come nobody does one of these for the NC . . . i dont feel i am qualified nor knowledgeable enough about this game to know what the different situations and results could be. All i nnow is for me (Fargo) to make it i need to win this week.

I think I'm going to get to doing it as I'm pretty bored here.

I can't promise that I won't get frustrated and decide to make some banners or watch a movie that I just downloaded though.
:P

[Warhammer]

I think part of it is the AC is so much more difficult to get a read on. Plus, it actually matters as it is possible to get a 4 team logjam at 9-7 or 8-8.

I am mixed on the issue of following the NFL rules though, because I am screwed in the division tie-breaker because of the record against common opponents. That means if I lose to Norfolk, I only get in if they do. So in the resulting Albuquerque - Louisiana - Hartford tie-break I lose because Louisiana beat both Albuquerque and Hartford.

All I have to say now is... GO TOADS! GO LYNX!

Sovstar if you want to do a banner you could do a Griz one!

[hawkster]

Sorry Fargo, I started it for the NC and I really wouldn't be able to make it much clearer because of the potential logjam of 10-6 records or 9-7 records. Everything there leads to the more complex tiebreakers and I don't want to post anything that later turns out to be wrong because I'm not perfect with my understanding of the system.

[sovstar]

Count me out as well. As selfish as it sounds, I know what I have to do and that's all that matters to me right now.

[Cringer]

if i don't go to work tonight, then i will give it a shot in the morning i think, unless someone beats me to it.

leaving for work tonight is 50-50.....

[Suicane]

Criger has a 50% of leaving for work tonight. There is an even chance he will stay home.
There, iv'e done my analyzing for tonight.

[Cringer]

Criger has a 50% of leaving for work tonight. There is an even chance he will stay home.
There, iv'e done my analyzing for tonight.

excellent work, and home tonight it is. atleast i got to see the Astros win and take a 3-2 series lead.....

[Cringer]

Ok, i have been sitting here looking at the NFC, and uh, fuck that! I'm just confusing myself as I write down the different kind of ties there could be. Pretty much what hawkster said above is how it goes for me, those tie-breakers get pretty deep it looks....if someone wants to give it a shot go for it. But I have other stuff I need to knock out before I leave for work.

[dberner30]

Analysis for teams in the hunt in the NC:

YOU NEED TO WIN NO MATTER WHAT THIS WEEK.

How is that for making a complicated thing easy. If you dont win --- your out. If you win --- you might still be out if everybody else wins.

BTW -- Im out of it so you can all drop dead. I forgot to win.