Playoff Scenarios

[Argot]

Sometimes I get these wrong, but I think this is how it goes down.

American Conference:

1. Iowa City has clinched the AC North and the #1 seed, even with a loss, they hold a tiebreaker with West Virginia
2. West Virginia has clinched the AC East the #2 seed.
3. Anchorage can clinch the AC West and the #3 seed with a win against 3-12 Portland. They can still win the division with a Los Angeles loss against 5-10 Las Vegas.
4. Murfreesboro has clinched the AC South and at least the #4 seed. They can gain the #3 seed with a win at 7-8 St. Louis and an Anchorage loss against 3-12 Portland.
5. Columbia has clinched a wildcard berth and the #5 seed.

6. Los Angeles can win the AC West and the #4 seed with a win against 5-10 Las Vegas and an Anchorage loss against 3-12 Portland. They can clinch a wildcard berth #6 seed with a win and a Cleveland loss against 14-1 Iowa City that may be resting players. A loss eliminates them from the playoffs.
7. Cleveland can clinch a wildcard berth #6 seed with a win against 14-1 Iowa City that may be resting players. They can also clinch a wildcard berth in a loss, with a Los Angeles loss against 5-10 Las Vegas.

National Conference:

1. Little Rock has clinched the NC South and can clinch the #1 seed with a win at 2-13 Tulsa. They can also clinch the #1 seed in a loss if Newark loses to 3-12 Vermont. Otherwise they are the #2 seed.
2. Newark has clinched the NC East and can clinch the #1 seed with a win at 3-12 Vermont and a Little Rock loss at 2-13 Tulsa. Otherwise they are the #2 seed.
3. Vancouver can clinch the NC West and the #3 seed with a win over 10-5 Arizona. They still make the playoffs in a loss. They are the #5 seed if Orlando also loses, and #6 seed if Orlando wins.
4. Arizona can clinch the NC West with a win at 11-4 Vancouver. With a win they can also claim the #3 seed if Dakota beats Madison, otherwise they would be the #4 seed. If Arizona loses, they may still make the playoffs, but would need Boston, Dakota, and Salt Lake City to lose.
5. Dakota can clinch the NC North and #4 seed with a win against Madison. They can still make the playoffs if Arizona and Boston lose.
6. Madison can clinch the NC North with a win at Dakota. They can still make the playoffs in a loss: (They clinch the #5 seed if Orlando and Arizona both lose-They still get the #6 seed if either Orlando or Arizona lose. If Orlando and Arizona both win they are out of the playoffs.

7. Orlando can make the playoffs as a #5 seed if they win at 8-7 Boston OR if Madison AND Vancouver win. They can make the playoffs as a #6 seed with a loss if Madison wins OR Dakota AND Vancouver both win. They only miss the playoffs if Dakota AND Arizona win.
8. Boston needs to win and Dakota, Arizona and Salt Lake City all need to lose.
9. Salt Lake City needs to win and have Arizona, Dakota and Boston all lose.

I'm sure I'm missing something...but...my head hurts too much.


If

[FootballAUS]

Great work Argot, this is so complicated and I've just tried to check the combinations and I think I agree on all fronts.

In any case anyone that THINKS that they have a chance should just try to take care of business by winning!

[Argot]

agreed. Just win baby!

[Matt]

great work Argot. these combinations always get murky.
I'm hoping for a LRK loss and a win on the road in Burlington Vermont!!

[Jeremy]

I think my odds of making it are pretty long because I can't see why Iowa City wouldn't rest their starters, and I can't see Anchorage losing to Portland. BUT it all starts with winning our last game against Vegas.

[Pirates]

I like just having to win. Makes it simple!

[Ushikawa]

EArizona beat the crap out of us earlier this year so happy to see we will be dancing regardless

[FrozenFlame]

SOme interesting scenarios going down this week. Good Luck to those fighting for spots in the playoffs!

[Argot]

Anybody understand how SLC's 6-6 Conference record wins the Tiebreaker over Madison's 8-4???

I am assuming it is common opponent?

SLC beat Madison
Madison beat Arizona
Arizona split with SLC.

[FootballAUS]

Anybody understand how SLC's 6-6 Conference record wins the Tiebreaker over Madison's 8-4???

I am assuming it is common opponent?

SLC beat Madison
Madison beat Arizona
Arizona split with SLC.

From nfl.com:

Two Clubs

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

[Argot]

It can't be head to head since there are three teams at 9-7. So the next one should be conference record which would promote Madison...right???

[FootballAUS]

It can't be head to head since there are three teams at 9-7. So the next one should be conference record which would promote Madison...right???

Just rechecked and there is a tie-breaker for 3 or more teams:

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

So we do the division tie-breaker to work out a winner between SLC and ARZ. You guys split the regular season so we go to the second tie-breaker which is conference record and SLC was 6-6 vs ARZ's 5-7. That eliminates ARZ according to the Three or More clubs tie-breaker and then it becomes SLC vs MAD. Since SLC won their Week 4 game that means Vito is through on the 2nd tie-breaker.

Not sure if I agree that it's a fair procedure but the result is consistent with the NFL's tie-breaking procedure.

[Argot]

I'll buy it, because it makes my head explode!