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PRE SEASON POWER RATINGS & PREDICTIONS
TB is making its second attempt to predict the elite teams for the upcoming season. A tough task considering there haven’t been any action under regular season conditions.
As last year, we believe that this will be controversial exercise again. But as last year proved, our analysis did predict nine of the twelve playoff participants and one of the two Imperial Bowl participants. We also had identified (in our “spoiler” category) two of the three that we missed as a playoff team selection (Montreal and Tulsa). We totally missed out on one team’s performance - Lansing. In all, we felt good about the methodology and thought we would give it another go.
All trades processed in the last sim have been included in the analysis, and so without further ado, here is the report.
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:arrow: Rosters change from year to year through retirement, free agency, and the draft. Yet there are teams that manage to be considered in the elite class year after year. In order to help identify those teams, we ranked each team based on the number of regular season games that it has won for the last three years. Teams with a high ranking would seem to suggest that its GM has the knack to consistently get good results by managing those roster circumstances (perhaps in a set system) while incorporating intuitive game planning to complement those changes.
This review’s top five in this category were: Tulsa (39), West Virginia (37), Newark (37), Norfolk (37), Lawrence (35). (Lawrence is new to the top five this year replacing Portland)
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:arrow: Each team’s 53 man roster was then analyzed. Our first pass was to count the number of players on the roster that had a current rating that was at least “good” or a 50. Such players would certainly qualify for starter status. The count provides a rough projection on the “current” strength of a starting lineup. Our next pass was then to look at the 30th highest rated player (using his current rating) on the roster regardless of position. We feel that this bookmark provided a rough idea of how strong the depth chart might be when comparing each thirtieth man to other teams. The cumulative score of these two provided us with strength of roster (as currently rated).
LAST YEAR: Highest number of players with a current rating of at least a 50: Portland (23), Newark (21), Vancouver (20), lots of teams with (18 )
THIS YEAR: Highest number of players with a current rating of at least a 50: Portland (22), Lawrence (21), Los Angeles (20), four teams with (18 )
LAST YEAR: Current bench strength (at the thirtieth highest player rating): Portland (44), Newark (44), Iowa City (43), lots of teams at (42).
THIS YEAR: Current bench strength (at the thirtieth highest player rating): Portland (45), Lawrence, Los Angeles, Vancouver, Montreal, Murfreesboro (42)
LAST YEAR: Cumulative Current Strength of Roster: Portland (67), Newark (65), Vancouver (61), Murfreesboro (60), a bunch of teams at (59)
THIS YEAR: Cumulative Current Strength of Roster: Portland (67), Lawrence (63), Los Angeles (62), Vancouver (60), Norfolk (59)
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:arrow: Then we looked at the 53 man rosters’ Future Estimate for ratings. We believe that this study provided a measure on what advances in talent a team could possibly make over the course of the season … advances that may significantly impact a team’s initial roster strength by playoff time.
LAST YEAR: Highest number of players with a future rating of at least a 50: Lawrence (27), Norfolk (25), Portland (24), Vancouver (24), Newark (22).
THIS YEAR: Highest number of players with a future rating of at least a 50: Lawrence (24), Georgia, Portland (23), Norfolk, Los Angeles, Iowa City (22)
LAST YEAR: Future bench strength rating at the thirtieth position: Lawrence (48 ), Norfolk (47), Portland (46 ), Newark (44), a bunch of teams at 43.
THIS YEAR: Future bench strength rating at the thirtieth position: Lawrence (48 ), Fresno, Little Rock, Portland (47), Iowa City, Georgia, Norfolk (46 )
LAST YEAR: Cumulative Future Strength of Roster: Lawrence (72), Norfolk (71), Portland (70), Vancouver (67), Newark (66)
THIS YEAR: Cumulative Future Strength of Roster: Lawrence (72 ), Portland (70 ), Georgia (69), Fresno, Iowa City, Norfolk (68 )
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:arrow: We looked at the playoff history for the last three years for each team. We focused on the number of games played which highlites those teams that seemed to take advantage of the playoff opportunity rather than make the playoffs and be one and done. We also gave extra credit for games won. We believe that teams that ranked high in our spread sheet reflected two things: dominance in a division, and the history of making the best of a playoff opportunity. This gives a power allowance to teams that may not fare as well in the categories stated earlier but do manage to dominate their division year end and year out. Once in the playoffs, anything can happen because it is a short four game season at that point.
LAST YEAR: The top five teams with strong playoff ratings were: Murfreesboro (14), Pennsylvania (13), West Virginia, Cleveland, Oakland (all with 12)
THIS YEAR: The top five teams with strong playoff ratings were: Portland (12), Newark, Lawrence (11), West Virginia, Cleveland (9)
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:arrow: We finally looked at the strength of the head coach and added this as a new criteria to the analysis. There has been discussion that the attributes (Motivation, Discipline, Offensive and Defensive Play Calling, and Injury Avoidance) do impact a team’s performance. This could be a difference maker for elite team status. We gave equal weight to each attribute.
Head Coach Strength: Cleveland, Newark (28 ), Pennsylvania (27), Chicago, Norfolk, Portland, Wichita (26)
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Now just what does this all mean? Well here goes boys and don’t :shoot: the messenger! After we sorted and added all these factors into one spread sheet, this is how it mathematically played out. And so goes our second infamous preseason prediction for the distant playoff picture!
2021 PRE-SEASON POWER RATINGS – ELITE STATUS (aka the 2021 playoff team predictions)
:!: 1. Portland (207)… Jeff seems to do everything right: roster, depth charts, coach hirings. On paper, the Seals are the favorites to win the Imperial Bowl. Despite the strengths of Anchorage and the up and comers in the AC-WEST (LA and Fresno), there is just too much talent and too much GM know–how for the other teams to overcome (at least this year).
:!: 2. Lawrence (201)… The Phantom’s are only a half step behind Portland’s 2021 offering. Jester has similar GM skills and puts them to excellent use. The only Phantom-phan question mark is: “What will be the impact of the change in head coach as the season progresses into the playoffs?” Despite this unknown, we have Lawrence representing the NC in the Imperial Bowl.
:!: 3. Newark (196)… After representing the NC in the Imperial Bowl for the last two years and winning the last one, Matt finds his team still strong enough to make some noise. We do not think it is the team that we saw last year but there are strengths that cannot be overlooked. The Bulldogs should easily claim a wild card berth and with its cohesion and strength of coaching could find itself back for a third consecutive Imperial Bowl appearance..
:!: 4. Norfolk (193)… As stated last year, Norfolk always puts a competitive team on the table and makes the playoffs almost every year. But these “one-and-done” playoff performances led GM r00k to make a head coach change this year. The Vipers should win the AC East and play Portland for the conference championship.
:!: 5. Vancouver (183)… What a break out season for the Killer Whales had last year and now they have climbed to the #5 spot in these ratings. Mark’s Whales are for definitely for real! We think they win the AC-WEST with ease. We also believe that they are the most dangerous challenge to the Lawrence-Newark-Tulsa dominance in that conference.
:!: 6. Murfreesboro (182)… Murfreesboro has dominated the AC South for years and this should not change this year. Houston will mount a challenge but the Mules have only missed the playoffs two out of the last eleven years. David will take his team to the post season party once again by winning the AC South.
:!: 7. Cleveland (181)… Cleveland plays in one of the IFL’s most competitive divisions. We think that all of these teams (Montreal, Iowa City and Wichita) will make sure that Mike’s journey is not a walk in the park. The Clawz are predicted to win the AC North in one of the nastiest intra-division brawls that this league has witnessed.
:!: 8. Georgia (180)… This is the year of the Generals. We thought that Georgia would claim the NC-SOUTH last year but were proven wrong by the high-flying system in Tulsa. This report’s calculations suggest, once again, that it is Georgia’s time to shine. Even though the system Tulsa employs has been magical for them for many years, this should be the year that Beeznik finds a way to snap that magical wand in half.
:!: 9. Iowa City (174) … The Snipe Hunters are predicted to return to the playoff scene after missing them last year. Sidewinder brought in a new head coach to help him in this task. The team does look strong across the board and it should emerge as a wild card candidate.
:!: 10. Los Angeles (174) … The Matadors have not been to the playoff since 2008. They play in a very tough division against the likes of Portland, Anchorage and Fresno. The roster is a head coach’s dream and we predict that LA will be the surprise team of the year, much like Vancouver last year. Hoosier just needs to find a way to bring home that Indiana bacon.
:!: 11. Pennsylvania (163)… The NC-North has a group of teams still in the rebuilding motions. Last year Lansing found its way to win the division championship and they again will provide the strongest competition to halt the Lions from reclaiming the division championship. At the final bell, we believe that Cy Young has just a little more to utilize and will take the NC North crown.
:!: 12. Tulsa (163)– Tulsa has a magic that the numbers don’t really explain. Last year – a 15-1 season! For this achievement, TB salutes the abilities of its GM. This year, Tarcone is waving that magic wand one more time over his hat and all are waiting to see what emerges. We think it will be enough to earn a wild card berth.
Honorable mention (a long list of possible spoilers):
AMERICAN CONFERENCE: Montreal (170), Houston (163), Fresno (163), Hartford (160 ),Wichita (159), Anchorage (159), West Virginia (155)
NATIONAL CONFERENCE: Oakland (155), Little Rock (152), Vermont (152)
That’s all folks, we tried to compile a balanced analysis that considers all angles … let the friendly debate continue below … and as usual, TB is proud to add to the legacy of this one of a kind league! :thewave:
TB is making its second attempt to predict the elite teams for the upcoming season. A tough task considering there haven’t been any action under regular season conditions.
As last year, we believe that this will be controversial exercise again. But as last year proved, our analysis did predict nine of the twelve playoff participants and one of the two Imperial Bowl participants. We also had identified (in our “spoiler” category) two of the three that we missed as a playoff team selection (Montreal and Tulsa). We totally missed out on one team’s performance - Lansing. In all, we felt good about the methodology and thought we would give it another go.
All trades processed in the last sim have been included in the analysis, and so without further ado, here is the report.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:arrow: Rosters change from year to year through retirement, free agency, and the draft. Yet there are teams that manage to be considered in the elite class year after year. In order to help identify those teams, we ranked each team based on the number of regular season games that it has won for the last three years. Teams with a high ranking would seem to suggest that its GM has the knack to consistently get good results by managing those roster circumstances (perhaps in a set system) while incorporating intuitive game planning to complement those changes.
This review’s top five in this category were: Tulsa (39), West Virginia (37), Newark (37), Norfolk (37), Lawrence (35). (Lawrence is new to the top five this year replacing Portland)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:arrow: Each team’s 53 man roster was then analyzed. Our first pass was to count the number of players on the roster that had a current rating that was at least “good” or a 50. Such players would certainly qualify for starter status. The count provides a rough projection on the “current” strength of a starting lineup. Our next pass was then to look at the 30th highest rated player (using his current rating) on the roster regardless of position. We feel that this bookmark provided a rough idea of how strong the depth chart might be when comparing each thirtieth man to other teams. The cumulative score of these two provided us with strength of roster (as currently rated).
LAST YEAR: Highest number of players with a current rating of at least a 50: Portland (23), Newark (21), Vancouver (20), lots of teams with (18 )
THIS YEAR: Highest number of players with a current rating of at least a 50: Portland (22), Lawrence (21), Los Angeles (20), four teams with (18 )
LAST YEAR: Current bench strength (at the thirtieth highest player rating): Portland (44), Newark (44), Iowa City (43), lots of teams at (42).
THIS YEAR: Current bench strength (at the thirtieth highest player rating): Portland (45), Lawrence, Los Angeles, Vancouver, Montreal, Murfreesboro (42)
LAST YEAR: Cumulative Current Strength of Roster: Portland (67), Newark (65), Vancouver (61), Murfreesboro (60), a bunch of teams at (59)
THIS YEAR: Cumulative Current Strength of Roster: Portland (67), Lawrence (63), Los Angeles (62), Vancouver (60), Norfolk (59)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:arrow: Then we looked at the 53 man rosters’ Future Estimate for ratings. We believe that this study provided a measure on what advances in talent a team could possibly make over the course of the season … advances that may significantly impact a team’s initial roster strength by playoff time.
LAST YEAR: Highest number of players with a future rating of at least a 50: Lawrence (27), Norfolk (25), Portland (24), Vancouver (24), Newark (22).
THIS YEAR: Highest number of players with a future rating of at least a 50: Lawrence (24), Georgia, Portland (23), Norfolk, Los Angeles, Iowa City (22)
LAST YEAR: Future bench strength rating at the thirtieth position: Lawrence (48 ), Norfolk (47), Portland (46 ), Newark (44), a bunch of teams at 43.
THIS YEAR: Future bench strength rating at the thirtieth position: Lawrence (48 ), Fresno, Little Rock, Portland (47), Iowa City, Georgia, Norfolk (46 )
LAST YEAR: Cumulative Future Strength of Roster: Lawrence (72), Norfolk (71), Portland (70), Vancouver (67), Newark (66)
THIS YEAR: Cumulative Future Strength of Roster: Lawrence (72 ), Portland (70 ), Georgia (69), Fresno, Iowa City, Norfolk (68 )
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:arrow: We looked at the playoff history for the last three years for each team. We focused on the number of games played which highlites those teams that seemed to take advantage of the playoff opportunity rather than make the playoffs and be one and done. We also gave extra credit for games won. We believe that teams that ranked high in our spread sheet reflected two things: dominance in a division, and the history of making the best of a playoff opportunity. This gives a power allowance to teams that may not fare as well in the categories stated earlier but do manage to dominate their division year end and year out. Once in the playoffs, anything can happen because it is a short four game season at that point.
LAST YEAR: The top five teams with strong playoff ratings were: Murfreesboro (14), Pennsylvania (13), West Virginia, Cleveland, Oakland (all with 12)
THIS YEAR: The top five teams with strong playoff ratings were: Portland (12), Newark, Lawrence (11), West Virginia, Cleveland (9)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:arrow: We finally looked at the strength of the head coach and added this as a new criteria to the analysis. There has been discussion that the attributes (Motivation, Discipline, Offensive and Defensive Play Calling, and Injury Avoidance) do impact a team’s performance. This could be a difference maker for elite team status. We gave equal weight to each attribute.
Head Coach Strength: Cleveland, Newark (28 ), Pennsylvania (27), Chicago, Norfolk, Portland, Wichita (26)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now just what does this all mean? Well here goes boys and don’t :shoot: the messenger! After we sorted and added all these factors into one spread sheet, this is how it mathematically played out. And so goes our second infamous preseason prediction for the distant playoff picture!
2021 PRE-SEASON POWER RATINGS – ELITE STATUS (aka the 2021 playoff team predictions)
:!: 1. Portland (207)… Jeff seems to do everything right: roster, depth charts, coach hirings. On paper, the Seals are the favorites to win the Imperial Bowl. Despite the strengths of Anchorage and the up and comers in the AC-WEST (LA and Fresno), there is just too much talent and too much GM know–how for the other teams to overcome (at least this year).
:!: 2. Lawrence (201)… The Phantom’s are only a half step behind Portland’s 2021 offering. Jester has similar GM skills and puts them to excellent use. The only Phantom-phan question mark is: “What will be the impact of the change in head coach as the season progresses into the playoffs?” Despite this unknown, we have Lawrence representing the NC in the Imperial Bowl.
:!: 3. Newark (196)… After representing the NC in the Imperial Bowl for the last two years and winning the last one, Matt finds his team still strong enough to make some noise. We do not think it is the team that we saw last year but there are strengths that cannot be overlooked. The Bulldogs should easily claim a wild card berth and with its cohesion and strength of coaching could find itself back for a third consecutive Imperial Bowl appearance..
:!: 4. Norfolk (193)… As stated last year, Norfolk always puts a competitive team on the table and makes the playoffs almost every year. But these “one-and-done” playoff performances led GM r00k to make a head coach change this year. The Vipers should win the AC East and play Portland for the conference championship.
:!: 5. Vancouver (183)… What a break out season for the Killer Whales had last year and now they have climbed to the #5 spot in these ratings. Mark’s Whales are for definitely for real! We think they win the AC-WEST with ease. We also believe that they are the most dangerous challenge to the Lawrence-Newark-Tulsa dominance in that conference.
:!: 6. Murfreesboro (182)… Murfreesboro has dominated the AC South for years and this should not change this year. Houston will mount a challenge but the Mules have only missed the playoffs two out of the last eleven years. David will take his team to the post season party once again by winning the AC South.
:!: 7. Cleveland (181)… Cleveland plays in one of the IFL’s most competitive divisions. We think that all of these teams (Montreal, Iowa City and Wichita) will make sure that Mike’s journey is not a walk in the park. The Clawz are predicted to win the AC North in one of the nastiest intra-division brawls that this league has witnessed.
:!: 8. Georgia (180)… This is the year of the Generals. We thought that Georgia would claim the NC-SOUTH last year but were proven wrong by the high-flying system in Tulsa. This report’s calculations suggest, once again, that it is Georgia’s time to shine. Even though the system Tulsa employs has been magical for them for many years, this should be the year that Beeznik finds a way to snap that magical wand in half.
:!: 9. Iowa City (174) … The Snipe Hunters are predicted to return to the playoff scene after missing them last year. Sidewinder brought in a new head coach to help him in this task. The team does look strong across the board and it should emerge as a wild card candidate.
:!: 10. Los Angeles (174) … The Matadors have not been to the playoff since 2008. They play in a very tough division against the likes of Portland, Anchorage and Fresno. The roster is a head coach’s dream and we predict that LA will be the surprise team of the year, much like Vancouver last year. Hoosier just needs to find a way to bring home that Indiana bacon.
:!: 11. Pennsylvania (163)… The NC-North has a group of teams still in the rebuilding motions. Last year Lansing found its way to win the division championship and they again will provide the strongest competition to halt the Lions from reclaiming the division championship. At the final bell, we believe that Cy Young has just a little more to utilize and will take the NC North crown.
:!: 12. Tulsa (163)– Tulsa has a magic that the numbers don’t really explain. Last year – a 15-1 season! For this achievement, TB salutes the abilities of its GM. This year, Tarcone is waving that magic wand one more time over his hat and all are waiting to see what emerges. We think it will be enough to earn a wild card berth.
Honorable mention (a long list of possible spoilers):
AMERICAN CONFERENCE: Montreal (170), Houston (163), Fresno (163), Hartford (160 ),Wichita (159), Anchorage (159), West Virginia (155)
NATIONAL CONFERENCE: Oakland (155), Little Rock (152), Vermont (152)
That’s all folks, we tried to compile a balanced analysis that considers all angles … let the friendly debate continue below … and as usual, TB is proud to add to the legacy of this one of a kind league! :thewave:
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