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:!: Week 15 is now done and with its results, there is a little better focus on the playoff picture. There are a few with their positions established but there are still a lot of teams that "want to be in that number."
Tick, tock, tick tock ... the clock is winding down. BUT in the tradition of FOF "end of game logic", these final two week will seem like an eternity. American Conference Observations:
Teams out of the hunt: After their heart breaking loss by one point to Montreal, we have added Iowa City to join this list of mourners. Wichita, Iowa City, Louisiana, Houston, St. Louis, Hartford, Fresno and Los Angeles.
:shoot: SPRINT for a BYE: Montreal (13-1), Cleveland (11-3), Portland (11-3), and Murfreesboro (10-4). At this time, there still is a three-way race to get a bye. But we have "a winner, firebird dinner" for home field advantage.
:!: Montreal has won the division, won a bye and has won home field advantage (even if Portland wins their last two and Montreal loses their last two leaving both teams at 13-3. We are concerned however that the game does not show a dark red dot by the team's name for the division championship.)
:!: Murfreesboro will host a game in the first round of the playoffs. There is still a remote chance to edge out a bye, if they win out and Portland provides a little assistance.
:!: Cleveland cannot win their division even if tied with Montreal at the end of the season with identical record of 13-3 (BUYER BEWARE with this a huge caveat: true, only if the game calculates tie breakers as the NFL currently does). First tiebreaker = head to head ... a push. Second tie breaker = record in division ... ad to Montreal. Third tiebreaker - record vs. common opponents ... push. Fourth tiebreaker = record in conference ... add to Montreal. With all this said, Cleveland has a lock to be a wild card team.
:!: Portland lost to Fresno last week. This was a fatal blow. Portland now needs one win or a Murfreesboro loss to claim the second bye. If Murfreesboro and Portland are tied at the end of the season, we "think" that Portland will win the second bye via tiebreaker. BUT AGAIN, BUYER BEWARE!
oke: The Wild Card SCRUM: Four teams continue to grab and claw in the scrum for any type of leverage for the remaining two playoff slots (the championship of the AC/East and a wild card slot are at stake). Listed in the order of difficulty of remaining schedule (easiest to hardest): Anchorage, West Virginia, Boston and Norfolk. Anchorage (8-6) The Lynx are one game behind in the win column. In a head-to-head tie breaker for a wild card slot: Anchorage would lose to Norfolk and Boston but win vs. West Virginia. The weaker strength of their remaining schedule could do wonders for the Lynx in these final two weeks.
West Virginia (8-5) The Beasts got beat up for the second week. First by Tulsa, and now by Norfolk. West Virginia is hoping that the strength of their division's foes is enough to vault them once again into a division championship or least a wild card slot. Their next opponent looks to be a patsy in Little Rock, but Cringer has been seen in the house for the last couple of weeks.
Boston (9-5) Boston took care of business versus Hartford. Now they will host Texas, who just knocked off Tulsa and also find themselves in a division championship bout .
Norfolk (9-5) Despite their horrendous schedule, the Vipers continue to knock off playoff caliber teams ... Murfreesboro, Georgia and now West Virginia. They now have control over their own destiny in their division but must face Tulsa and then Boston to bring home the prize.
National Conference Observations:
Teams out of the hunt: One new team added to the list. Vancouver, even though mathematically not eliminated, joins the peanut gallery after losing for the second straight week. The peanut gallery: Dakota, Lansing, Lawrence, Little Rock, Orlando, Reno, Vancouver, Salt Lake City:shoot: SPRINT for a BYE: Pennsylvania (11-3), Tulsa (11-3) & Newark (11-3) and Oakland (10-4). All four have legitimate shots for a bye. Home field advantage? ... let's determine the byes before we go there.
:!: Newark seems to have the easiest remaining schedule (Fresno and rival Lawrence). BUT ... Fresno has been playing some really great ball lately, just ask Portland last week. The Newark/Lawrence game always features a fireworks display.
:!: Tulsa has a very ambitious schedule as the hottest team in the IFL visits, the Norfolk Vipers, and this is followed by Georgia Generals who still find themselves scratching for a wild card berth.
:!: Pennsylvania has an interesting schedule versus Wichita and a surging Madison squad. Nothing to take for granted there.
:!: Oakland is only one games out. Wins against Murfreesboro and Vancouver and some losses by their conference mates could be very entertaining for the Devils.
oke:The Wild Card SCRUM: This leaves four teams still in the NC scrum -- looking to snatch one of two playoff berths (the two wild cards) -listed in order of weakest schedule to hardest schedule: Vermont, Georgia, Texas, Madison.Vermont (9-5) Vermont's chances to get a playoff bid continues to gain momentum. The Mountaineers face Anchorage and Orlando in the final two weeks. Vermont is a front runner to prevail for a playoff spot.
Georgia (8-6) Georgia is still mathematically alive. The Generals have an uphill battle as Hartford and Tulsa are the immediate agenda. They also need a few stumbles by others in the scrum.
Texas (10-4) Texas is hot, hot, hot. However, they cannot gloat in their latest victory over Tulsa because they travel to another strong hopeful for a divisional championship -- Boston. The Trojan's last game is against Orlando. We think that the Trojans are the favorites and really have done enough to qualify for a wild card berth. However, watch out Tulsa, Texas are now probably focused on a division championship as they take notice of your remaining schedule.
Madison (9-5) The Demons just will not die. Next up is Montreal who has claimed home field advantage in the playoffs (we think). A win against Montreal would set up an important finale against Pennsylvania with a potential playoff berth on the line.
TB picked 2 out of 3 games correctly last week and we are now 13 out of 16 since our WEEK 10 REVIEW. This week, there are five games that feature a playoff hopeful on each side of the field. Here's what we think about the weekend lineup.Vermont at Anchorage ... A must win game for both teams in order to keep pace for a possible wild card berth. Loser will be sent to the peanut gallery. There are no recent injuries of note. Everyone has this as even. On closer examination, we see that the Mountaineers lost to Newark twice and the Lynx beat the Bulldogs early in the season. That points us to an Anchorage win.
Murfreesboro at Oakland ... Both teams are playoff bound and both teams are still focused on a potential first round bye. The Devils will miss the services of MLB Hinson but has a good backup. Both teams have had only one win versus a playoff caliber team. Both teams beat up on the weak AC South but Oakland had bit more effort to do so. Murfreesboro wins.
Madison at Montreal ... A meaningless game for Montreal who would like to rest some starters. We think they can, but are still puzzled why the game has not given them the dark red circle. Madison seems to be a team of destiny. With this scenario, Madison prevails.
Norfolk at Tulsa ... Damn, what a late season matchup. On paper and while at home, Tulsa should not be challenged. But Norfolk has been unstoppable ever since Cavazos returned from an injury that occurred last year. The Vipers lost ILB Fisk this week. Both teams recently beat up on a strong West Virginia squad. Tulsa has not lost at home and will not deviate from this behavior against the Vipers.
Texas at Boston … Double damn, whoever developed this schedule sure added some extra hot sauce to the gumbo. Even though Texas lost DE Herkel in their win against Tulsa, we like the looks of who the Trojans have beat over the course of the season. Boston has had difficulty against the more elite teams of the league. Texas wins.
Post Script: Indeed, as the Tulsa Tigerhawks GM points out, the Texas Trojans do have a legitimate chance to win the division if Texas wins out and Tulsa tanks the last two. If tied at the end of the season, we are not sure but think that the winner will be decided by the fifth tie breaker rule (strength of victory) but in all honesty the game probably uses the "Montreal Rule" and just arbitrarily picks one!
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