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Following up on the AFC preview, here is my take on the NFC title game. Full disclosure here, I have a vested interest in the outcome but I've tried to be as objective as possible :-)
CALGARY (13-5)
Offense
Total Offense: 20th
Points Per Game: 12th
Defense
Total Defense: 8th
Points Per Game: 3rd
When StevenE took over the Calgary Stampeders in 2031 the franchise was coming off a 3-13 season and after finishing 9-7 in his first season, this year the team went 11-5 and won the NC West.
Rather than hit the reset button StevenE has pulled together players via free agency, trades and the draft to assemble the archetypal "better than the sum of its parts" team. Longtime Stampeder veterans, free agent pick ups, drafted and undrafted rookies: they're all there on this roster and playing well. With an average player age of 28 Calgary is also the third oldest team in the IFL, a stark contrast to the three other teams playing this week that are in the youngest seven in the league.
On offense QB Troy Horner has the big red bars and the former 1.1 draft pick has done a great job spreading the ball around with six players having 40 or more receptions on the year. With the exception of TE Albert Horne, none of the Stampeder pass catchers are imposing figures on the field but with Horner throwing the ball there always seems to be someone open and it's been good enough for the team to rank 7th in completions per game. Calagary's rushing attack is led by free agent pick up Roy Tietsworth, and while the veteran is not generating the same yards as he did when he was playing for Arizona he's generated almost 700 rushing yards in spite of missing time earlier in the season to an elbow injury.
The special sauce in Calgary's offense however might just be might be the combination of Troy Horner and his OLine which has this team as the league leaders in offensive Pass Rush and Pass Defense percentages.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage Calgary's strength has been their league leading pass defense which has held opposing QBs to an average 68.3 rating. Let's put that in context by pointing out that the Stampeders have faced some of the league's best QBs including Travis Kennedy (twice), Miles Branch (twice), Wesley May, Dwight Mahe (also twice), Bryant Bruce and even Gabe Patterson (although Vito may disagree on including him). In regular season play opposing teams completed just 53.9% of their passes and CGY allowed just 5.83 yards per attempt.
Add to that their 23 Fumble recoveries and 17 interceptions and you get a strong sense about the identity of this team.
If the Stampeders have a weakness on defense, however, it's on the ground where they have surrendered nearly 2000 yards at 4.57 yards a carry. But if Calgary can get out to an early lead that may not matter with any comeback having to be against what this team does best.
LITTLE ROCK (14-4)
Offense
Total Offense: 2nd
Points Per Game: 2nd
Defense
Total Defense: 22nd
Points Per Game: 6th(T)
When you look at the Little Rock roster and see the talent stacked up on the defensive side of the ball it's almost shocking to discover that the Thunder has actually fielded the second best offense in the IFL this year with 428 yards while our defense is 22nd with almost 357 yards surrendered per game.
But who cares about yards? For me it's about points and if we look at that metric the offense is still second with 32.3 ppg but now the defense comes in at a tie for 6th with 21.2.
Offensively the Thunder have run for just under 3000 yards this season for the third highest total in league history (Orlando owns 1st and 2nd of course) and has produced two 1000 yard rushers. With 508 rushing attempts everyone knows we like to run the ball and we've been able to do it behind an offensive line that has good cohesion, some strong affinities and whole bunch of big red bars.
And with that ground game forcing teams to respect the run, QB Albert Gianettino has put up the best numbers of his career and set franchise records for QBR, Yards per Pass Attempt and TDs. They're not Montemayor/Kennedy/Lester type of numbers but they're pretty impressive for a QB with a league scout rating of 44 and you can get that sort of output when your opponent has to respect the run.
Defensively it would seem that the Thunder spends a lot of time in practice on the running game because this year we were pretty successful in stopping opposing teams from running it against us with just 79.3 yards surrendered per game. It's all relative though as we have been torched in the air all season long giving up a league worst 298.1 yards a game.
That's been a puzzle for me all season and the best explanation that I can come up with is that we have gone into the 4th Quarter with leads in 11 games and won 10 of them. In nine of those games our lead was by more than two scores. A quick sample of the game logs shows a lot of passes being thrown and a lot of yards being gained so maybe the stats are somewhat skewed by hurry-up offenses and frantic comeback attempts? Either way one thing is certain: the Stampeders will be throwing the ball against us.
In any case for Little Rock it all starts with the ground game and if we can get that going we may be able to avoid putting ourselves in danger by throwing into the teeth of Calgary's pass defense in what promises to be a great game.
Point Spread:
Little Rock by 4
Head to Head:
This will be the 17th meeting of the teams and the series is tied 8-8.
Last Meeting:
Week 4, 2031: Little Rock 35 def Calgary 0 in Little Rock
CALGARY (13-5)
Offense
Total Offense: 20th
Points Per Game: 12th
Defense
Total Defense: 8th
Points Per Game: 3rd
When StevenE took over the Calgary Stampeders in 2031 the franchise was coming off a 3-13 season and after finishing 9-7 in his first season, this year the team went 11-5 and won the NC West.
Rather than hit the reset button StevenE has pulled together players via free agency, trades and the draft to assemble the archetypal "better than the sum of its parts" team. Longtime Stampeder veterans, free agent pick ups, drafted and undrafted rookies: they're all there on this roster and playing well. With an average player age of 28 Calgary is also the third oldest team in the IFL, a stark contrast to the three other teams playing this week that are in the youngest seven in the league.
On offense QB Troy Horner has the big red bars and the former 1.1 draft pick has done a great job spreading the ball around with six players having 40 or more receptions on the year. With the exception of TE Albert Horne, none of the Stampeder pass catchers are imposing figures on the field but with Horner throwing the ball there always seems to be someone open and it's been good enough for the team to rank 7th in completions per game. Calagary's rushing attack is led by free agent pick up Roy Tietsworth, and while the veteran is not generating the same yards as he did when he was playing for Arizona he's generated almost 700 rushing yards in spite of missing time earlier in the season to an elbow injury.
The special sauce in Calgary's offense however might just be might be the combination of Troy Horner and his OLine which has this team as the league leaders in offensive Pass Rush and Pass Defense percentages.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage Calgary's strength has been their league leading pass defense which has held opposing QBs to an average 68.3 rating. Let's put that in context by pointing out that the Stampeders have faced some of the league's best QBs including Travis Kennedy (twice), Miles Branch (twice), Wesley May, Dwight Mahe (also twice), Bryant Bruce and even Gabe Patterson (although Vito may disagree on including him). In regular season play opposing teams completed just 53.9% of their passes and CGY allowed just 5.83 yards per attempt.
Add to that their 23 Fumble recoveries and 17 interceptions and you get a strong sense about the identity of this team.
If the Stampeders have a weakness on defense, however, it's on the ground where they have surrendered nearly 2000 yards at 4.57 yards a carry. But if Calgary can get out to an early lead that may not matter with any comeback having to be against what this team does best.
LITTLE ROCK (14-4)
Offense
Total Offense: 2nd
Points Per Game: 2nd
Defense
Total Defense: 22nd
Points Per Game: 6th(T)
When you look at the Little Rock roster and see the talent stacked up on the defensive side of the ball it's almost shocking to discover that the Thunder has actually fielded the second best offense in the IFL this year with 428 yards while our defense is 22nd with almost 357 yards surrendered per game.
But who cares about yards? For me it's about points and if we look at that metric the offense is still second with 32.3 ppg but now the defense comes in at a tie for 6th with 21.2.
Offensively the Thunder have run for just under 3000 yards this season for the third highest total in league history (Orlando owns 1st and 2nd of course) and has produced two 1000 yard rushers. With 508 rushing attempts everyone knows we like to run the ball and we've been able to do it behind an offensive line that has good cohesion, some strong affinities and whole bunch of big red bars.
And with that ground game forcing teams to respect the run, QB Albert Gianettino has put up the best numbers of his career and set franchise records for QBR, Yards per Pass Attempt and TDs. They're not Montemayor/Kennedy/Lester type of numbers but they're pretty impressive for a QB with a league scout rating of 44 and you can get that sort of output when your opponent has to respect the run.
Defensively it would seem that the Thunder spends a lot of time in practice on the running game because this year we were pretty successful in stopping opposing teams from running it against us with just 79.3 yards surrendered per game. It's all relative though as we have been torched in the air all season long giving up a league worst 298.1 yards a game.
That's been a puzzle for me all season and the best explanation that I can come up with is that we have gone into the 4th Quarter with leads in 11 games and won 10 of them. In nine of those games our lead was by more than two scores. A quick sample of the game logs shows a lot of passes being thrown and a lot of yards being gained so maybe the stats are somewhat skewed by hurry-up offenses and frantic comeback attempts? Either way one thing is certain: the Stampeders will be throwing the ball against us.
In any case for Little Rock it all starts with the ground game and if we can get that going we may be able to avoid putting ourselves in danger by throwing into the teeth of Calgary's pass defense in what promises to be a great game.
Point Spread:
Little Rock by 4
Head to Head:
This will be the 17th meeting of the teams and the series is tied 8-8.
Last Meeting:
Week 4, 2031: Little Rock 35 def Calgary 0 in Little Rock
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