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With some unexpected spare time on my hands today I thought that I'd do a quick write up previewing both championship games. Bear in mind this stuff is entirely my opinion and is, therefore, likely to be wrong but for what it's worth I really enjoy the analytical aspects of being in a MP league so with your indulgence happy to share what I see.
So first up here's my take on West Virginia vs Iowa City:
IOWA CITY (15-2)
Offense
Total Offense: 7th
Points Per Game: 3rd
Defense
Total Defense: 9th
Points Per Game: 1st
IWC has looked and played the part of defending champions all season and have parlayed their league-leading 14-2 regular season record into a consecutive appearance in the AFC championship game. Led by all-world QB Samuel Hillery and the stingiest defense in the IFL the Arsenal are a threat to go all the way.
Offensively the Arsenal have plenty of options to go with Hillery. RB Joe Taylor is a nifty inside runner that has had a breakout season rushing for over 1200 yards and 11 TDs in his third season and has forced opposing defenses to respect Iowa City's ground game. On the outside WRs Garrett Coffey and Steven Zimmerman have each put up over 1000 receiving yards and collected 20TDs between them. But even with those guys on the field it's still Hillery that makes it all come together in Dawgfan's variation of the West Coast Offense.
Hillery has set a league record 127.3 QBR shattering the mark of 124.0 that had been set by Tulsa's Matt Sanford way back in 2013. While Hillery has "only" thrown 27TD passes he has completed over 76% of his passes and has just two interceptions on the year.
On the defensive side Arsenal's efforts are keyed by the pass-rushing prowess of DEs Harris Chamberlin and Heath Spooner and the 2031 DPOY WLB Erick LaBounty. Between the three of them IWC has generated 40.5 sacks, 9 blocked passes and 46 hurries. Putting this into context this year the league average is 40.25 pass plays per team and the combination of Chamberlin , Spooner and LaBounty has effectively generated about 2.4 entire games of incompletions on their own. Throw in the 16 interceptions and 68 passes that Arsenal has defended and you start to see how good this defense can be.
The icing on the IWC cake is their special teams which have been spectacular. A league best 15.3 yards per PR, a league best 1.8 yards per opposing PR, 3 ST TDs and a rookie kicker that is 7/7 on FGs over 50 yards complete the picture of a team that is dominant in every phase of the game.
So if you haven't got it by now this team is tough to beat.
WEST VIRGINIA (14-4)
Offense
Total Offense: 23rd
Points Per Game: 11th
Defense
Total Defense: 15th
Points Per Game: 4th
The Beasts of the East have played in the shadow of IWC in the AFC but have been a standout performer all season. In fact with the exception of a Week 2 loss to Arizona they have been remarkably consistent and competitive all year.
Looking at the stats for FrozenFlame's offense you see an enigma. Sure the QB Thomas Burgess to WR Andrew Perrotta connection is a big part of their offense but the Beasts run the ball over 50% of the time and while they are 8th in the league in rushing attempts their leading rusher, RB Raymond Wynn, managed only 2.59 yards per carry and didn't even get 600 yards on the season. Even so Wynn still had 226 carries and 9 rushing TDs on the year but from an output perspective those numbers aren't exactly terrifying.
The only thing that I have seen that helps to explain this is that WVA has been dominant in the first half all season and has gone a whopping 12-1 on the year when they have led or been tied going into the halftime break. While the other team has been playing catch-up, the Beasts have just pounded the ball and let the clock do it's job for them.
Defensively there is a lot to like about the Beasts but my favorite stats are their league best 29.4% conversion rate on 3rd Down and league best 4.2 points allowed per Red Zone visit. Forget the gross yards gained, the ability to get opposing offenses off the field and minimising the damage they do when the get close to the end zone are key metrics and that's exactly where WVA has been dominant.
The Beasts don't have the gaudy stats of their opponent in the AFC championship game but their deep passing game and ability to grind out yards on the ground late in a game combined with what is arguably the best situational defense in the league means that this will be a game well worth watching.
Point Spread:
Iowa City by 6
Head to Head:
This will be the 19th meeting of the teams and Iowa City leads the series 10-8.
Last Meeting:
Week 8, 2031: Iowa City 38 def West Virginia 7 in West Virginia
So first up here's my take on West Virginia vs Iowa City:
IOWA CITY (15-2)
Offense
Total Offense: 7th
Points Per Game: 3rd
Defense
Total Defense: 9th
Points Per Game: 1st
IWC has looked and played the part of defending champions all season and have parlayed their league-leading 14-2 regular season record into a consecutive appearance in the AFC championship game. Led by all-world QB Samuel Hillery and the stingiest defense in the IFL the Arsenal are a threat to go all the way.
Offensively the Arsenal have plenty of options to go with Hillery. RB Joe Taylor is a nifty inside runner that has had a breakout season rushing for over 1200 yards and 11 TDs in his third season and has forced opposing defenses to respect Iowa City's ground game. On the outside WRs Garrett Coffey and Steven Zimmerman have each put up over 1000 receiving yards and collected 20TDs between them. But even with those guys on the field it's still Hillery that makes it all come together in Dawgfan's variation of the West Coast Offense.
Hillery has set a league record 127.3 QBR shattering the mark of 124.0 that had been set by Tulsa's Matt Sanford way back in 2013. While Hillery has "only" thrown 27TD passes he has completed over 76% of his passes and has just two interceptions on the year.
On the defensive side Arsenal's efforts are keyed by the pass-rushing prowess of DEs Harris Chamberlin and Heath Spooner and the 2031 DPOY WLB Erick LaBounty. Between the three of them IWC has generated 40.5 sacks, 9 blocked passes and 46 hurries. Putting this into context this year the league average is 40.25 pass plays per team and the combination of Chamberlin , Spooner and LaBounty has effectively generated about 2.4 entire games of incompletions on their own. Throw in the 16 interceptions and 68 passes that Arsenal has defended and you start to see how good this defense can be.
The icing on the IWC cake is their special teams which have been spectacular. A league best 15.3 yards per PR, a league best 1.8 yards per opposing PR, 3 ST TDs and a rookie kicker that is 7/7 on FGs over 50 yards complete the picture of a team that is dominant in every phase of the game.
So if you haven't got it by now this team is tough to beat.
WEST VIRGINIA (14-4)
Offense
Total Offense: 23rd
Points Per Game: 11th
Defense
Total Defense: 15th
Points Per Game: 4th
The Beasts of the East have played in the shadow of IWC in the AFC but have been a standout performer all season. In fact with the exception of a Week 2 loss to Arizona they have been remarkably consistent and competitive all year.
Looking at the stats for FrozenFlame's offense you see an enigma. Sure the QB Thomas Burgess to WR Andrew Perrotta connection is a big part of their offense but the Beasts run the ball over 50% of the time and while they are 8th in the league in rushing attempts their leading rusher, RB Raymond Wynn, managed only 2.59 yards per carry and didn't even get 600 yards on the season. Even so Wynn still had 226 carries and 9 rushing TDs on the year but from an output perspective those numbers aren't exactly terrifying.
The only thing that I have seen that helps to explain this is that WVA has been dominant in the first half all season and has gone a whopping 12-1 on the year when they have led or been tied going into the halftime break. While the other team has been playing catch-up, the Beasts have just pounded the ball and let the clock do it's job for them.
Defensively there is a lot to like about the Beasts but my favorite stats are their league best 29.4% conversion rate on 3rd Down and league best 4.2 points allowed per Red Zone visit. Forget the gross yards gained, the ability to get opposing offenses off the field and minimising the damage they do when the get close to the end zone are key metrics and that's exactly where WVA has been dominant.
The Beasts don't have the gaudy stats of their opponent in the AFC championship game but their deep passing game and ability to grind out yards on the ground late in a game combined with what is arguably the best situational defense in the league means that this will be a game well worth watching.
Point Spread:
Iowa City by 6
Head to Head:
This will be the 19th meeting of the teams and Iowa City leads the series 10-8.
Last Meeting:
Week 8, 2031: Iowa City 38 def West Virginia 7 in West Virginia
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