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With our bye week behind us I figured that it's about time to have a crack at restarting the weekly LRK game preview. And what a week to start with a red-hot Dakota Spirit team making it's way to William Jefferson Clinton Stadium for a key match up that may define the rest of the season for the Thunder.
This time last season we were 2-5 so to say that we're pretty happy with how we've started the 2032 campaign is an understatement. More importantly for our goal of a post-season berth we have a head to head victory over Texas and, with the Trojans falling to the Lansing Ogres in Week 8, we now lead the division by 1.5 games. It's a great position to for us to be in but the toughest part of our schedule is about to start and features not only a big game this week against Dakota but over the next few rounds match-ups against Madison, Anchorage and Newark as well. We need to win two out of those four games and the toughest one to get may be this one against the Spirit.
KEY MATCHUPS:
Dakota QB Luther Montemayor vs Little Rock Pass Defense:
Is Montemayor the most dangerous QB in the IFL? With all due respect to IWC's Samuel Hillery, in Little Rock we think the answer to that is yes. It's not just his obvious abilities, he can make any pass and does a good job protecting the ball, but with WRs Jumbo Walton, Calvin Lyle and Teddy Knight to throw to he can and will burn any defense at some point. With the exception of the team's week 3 loss to Newark, Montemayor has thrown for over 300 yards a game and even with that loss he is averaging 9.81 yards per attempt and 14.21 yards per completion. In theory all you have to do to beat Dakota is stop Montemayor but putting that into practice is more easily said than done and is set to be the biggest challenge in this game.
Dakota Running Game:
Montemayor gets all the attention (as he should) but surprisingly the Spirit runs the ball about 48% of the time so ignoring it to focus on the pass will get you burned. While their running game is not flashy it's been effective in no small part because of the Spirit's 97 cohesion on the Offensive Line and Dakota has been grinding out over 115 yards per game putting the hurt on teams that have spent too much time teeing off on the pass. Dakota will run the ball against us and will pound out the yards unless we make a concerted effort to shut down their running attack.
Little Rock LDE Mickey O'Donnell vs Dakota RT Wally Hernandez:
I can't imagine that Dakota will leave the rookie Hernandez in the RT position to face league sack leader O'Donnell. With 14 sacks, 12 Hurries and a massive 33 Knockdowns in just 7 games O'Donnell is on pace to demolish opposing QBs and the single season sack record and is a legitimate contender to be DPOY. If the Thunder is to have a chance this week we need our star DE to not only play at a high level we actually need him to turn it up a notch (or two) and mess up Montemayor before he can get the ball downfield.
Little Rock Run Offense vs Dakota Run Defense:
Dakota's defense has been soft against the run so far this year giving up 5.16 yards per carry although with frequent late leads the Spirit has been more interested in defending opposing passes. In any case the prospect of Little Rock's 192.2 yards per game and 5.99 yards a carry running game facing the Spirit Run D is one match up that we are definitely looking forward to seeing even though we anticipate a ton of Aggressive Run/1 Deep MTM defense.
On a side note so far this season the Thunder Adjusted Line Yards is at a whopping 6.06 yards per carry. The previous season record in this category is held by the 2030 Orlando Pirates at 5.68 and while there is still a lot of football to be played we are in rare territory here. Let's see if we can parlay that into a post-season appearance by running our way to victory.
Dakota LCB Ken Clemons vs Little Rock WR Sean Everett
For a guy that hasn't had a 1000 yard season for nearly seven years, WR Sean Everett has emerged as the top target and playmaker in the Thunder passing game. While he lags behind the league leaders in targets, receptions and yards he is setting the pace in TDs (10 in seven games) and Yards per Target (12.15 yards). Second year player Ken Clemons has emerged as the top CB in Dakota and has been a solid defender all season but we expect to see a lot of double coverage on Everett nonetheless.
The Battle of Special Teams:
One of the few areas where Little Rock would appear to have an edge over Dakota is in the punting and kicking games. The Thunder have given up just 3.1 yards on punt returns and 18.6 yards on kick returns while the Spirit are surrendering 10.0 yards and 24.4 yards respectively in the same categories. Neither team punts a lot however so it may be the kick return game that gets the attention this week in which case we are hoping return specialist Pedro Franz (13 returns 408 yards and 1TD) can make an impact.
Point Spread:
Dakota by 4
Head to Head:
This will be the 18th meeting of the teams and Dakota leads the series 7-10.
Last Meeting:
Week 9, 2029: Dakota 37 def Little Rock 17 in Little Rock
A side note on DE O'Donnell:
For the technical nerds out there the big change that I made defensively with the Thunder was not the Week 5 switch to a 43 front (although that was significant) but signing 13 year veteran RDT Donald Wachter. The only reason we wanted Wachter was as our defensive front leader replacing WLB Vernon Joseph in that capacity. Last season, with Joseph as the defensive front leader, DE O'Donnell had an extreme conflict and registered just 10 sacks. O'Donnell has no issue with Wachter this season and has been on a tear so is it possible that bad chemistry was the issue for our star DE last season? I'm not sure but I think it certainly contributed and it's probably worth thinking about these extreme conflicts when looking over your own rosters.
This time last season we were 2-5 so to say that we're pretty happy with how we've started the 2032 campaign is an understatement. More importantly for our goal of a post-season berth we have a head to head victory over Texas and, with the Trojans falling to the Lansing Ogres in Week 8, we now lead the division by 1.5 games. It's a great position to for us to be in but the toughest part of our schedule is about to start and features not only a big game this week against Dakota but over the next few rounds match-ups against Madison, Anchorage and Newark as well. We need to win two out of those four games and the toughest one to get may be this one against the Spirit.
KEY MATCHUPS:
Dakota QB Luther Montemayor vs Little Rock Pass Defense:
Is Montemayor the most dangerous QB in the IFL? With all due respect to IWC's Samuel Hillery, in Little Rock we think the answer to that is yes. It's not just his obvious abilities, he can make any pass and does a good job protecting the ball, but with WRs Jumbo Walton, Calvin Lyle and Teddy Knight to throw to he can and will burn any defense at some point. With the exception of the team's week 3 loss to Newark, Montemayor has thrown for over 300 yards a game and even with that loss he is averaging 9.81 yards per attempt and 14.21 yards per completion. In theory all you have to do to beat Dakota is stop Montemayor but putting that into practice is more easily said than done and is set to be the biggest challenge in this game.
Dakota Running Game:
Montemayor gets all the attention (as he should) but surprisingly the Spirit runs the ball about 48% of the time so ignoring it to focus on the pass will get you burned. While their running game is not flashy it's been effective in no small part because of the Spirit's 97 cohesion on the Offensive Line and Dakota has been grinding out over 115 yards per game putting the hurt on teams that have spent too much time teeing off on the pass. Dakota will run the ball against us and will pound out the yards unless we make a concerted effort to shut down their running attack.
Little Rock LDE Mickey O'Donnell vs Dakota RT Wally Hernandez:
I can't imagine that Dakota will leave the rookie Hernandez in the RT position to face league sack leader O'Donnell. With 14 sacks, 12 Hurries and a massive 33 Knockdowns in just 7 games O'Donnell is on pace to demolish opposing QBs and the single season sack record and is a legitimate contender to be DPOY. If the Thunder is to have a chance this week we need our star DE to not only play at a high level we actually need him to turn it up a notch (or two) and mess up Montemayor before he can get the ball downfield.
Little Rock Run Offense vs Dakota Run Defense:
Dakota's defense has been soft against the run so far this year giving up 5.16 yards per carry although with frequent late leads the Spirit has been more interested in defending opposing passes. In any case the prospect of Little Rock's 192.2 yards per game and 5.99 yards a carry running game facing the Spirit Run D is one match up that we are definitely looking forward to seeing even though we anticipate a ton of Aggressive Run/1 Deep MTM defense.
On a side note so far this season the Thunder Adjusted Line Yards is at a whopping 6.06 yards per carry. The previous season record in this category is held by the 2030 Orlando Pirates at 5.68 and while there is still a lot of football to be played we are in rare territory here. Let's see if we can parlay that into a post-season appearance by running our way to victory.
Dakota LCB Ken Clemons vs Little Rock WR Sean Everett
For a guy that hasn't had a 1000 yard season for nearly seven years, WR Sean Everett has emerged as the top target and playmaker in the Thunder passing game. While he lags behind the league leaders in targets, receptions and yards he is setting the pace in TDs (10 in seven games) and Yards per Target (12.15 yards). Second year player Ken Clemons has emerged as the top CB in Dakota and has been a solid defender all season but we expect to see a lot of double coverage on Everett nonetheless.
The Battle of Special Teams:
One of the few areas where Little Rock would appear to have an edge over Dakota is in the punting and kicking games. The Thunder have given up just 3.1 yards on punt returns and 18.6 yards on kick returns while the Spirit are surrendering 10.0 yards and 24.4 yards respectively in the same categories. Neither team punts a lot however so it may be the kick return game that gets the attention this week in which case we are hoping return specialist Pedro Franz (13 returns 408 yards and 1TD) can make an impact.
Point Spread:
Dakota by 4
Head to Head:
This will be the 18th meeting of the teams and Dakota leads the series 7-10.
Last Meeting:
Week 9, 2029: Dakota 37 def Little Rock 17 in Little Rock
A side note on DE O'Donnell:
For the technical nerds out there the big change that I made defensively with the Thunder was not the Week 5 switch to a 43 front (although that was significant) but signing 13 year veteran RDT Donald Wachter. The only reason we wanted Wachter was as our defensive front leader replacing WLB Vernon Joseph in that capacity. Last season, with Joseph as the defensive front leader, DE O'Donnell had an extreme conflict and registered just 10 sacks. O'Donnell has no issue with Wachter this season and has been on a tear so is it possible that bad chemistry was the issue for our star DE last season? I'm not sure but I think it certainly contributed and it's probably worth thinking about these extreme conflicts when looking over your own rosters.
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