2019 Week #17 Discussion

[Trivia Bytes]

FINAL WEEK OF THE REGULAR SEASON – wk 17

Well , the playoff picture has settled down a bit, but there are some very interesting balls still in the air. Here is how it looks to us.

AMERICAN CONFERENCE

:arrow: 1st seed - West Virginia and Norfolk. It seems that the winner of the blockbuster season finale between these two teams will takes home the prize. Here are the scenarios: 1. West Virginia would take it hands down with a win. 2. Norfolk should win via tie breaker (Strength of Victory), if the current beaten teams last game's efforts do not upset the apple cart equations. So it looks like r00k, who has been complaining about his schedule, can now thank the heavens for it now!

:arrow: 2nd seed - Portland, locked up.

:arrow: 3rd seed –1. Iowa City with a win. 2. Cleveland with a win and an IWC loss. 3. Strength of Victory Tie Breaker between Murfreesboro and Iowa City if Murfreesboro wins, IWC loses and CLE loses.

:arrow: 4th seed – 1. Murfreeesboro if it did not aquire the third seed. 2. Iowa City if it loss in the Strength of Victory Tie Breaker for the third seed

:arrow: 5th seed - The second place team in the AC-East: West Virginia or Norfolk.

:arrow: 6th seed - 1. If Anchorage loses, they are eliminated. Anchorage is in with a win, an Iowa City loss, and a Cleveland loss. 2. Cleveland earns spot with a win, Iowa City win and Anchorage win. 3. Iowa City earns spot with a loss, Cleveland win and an Anchorage win or loss.


NATIONAL CONFERENCE

:arrow: 1st seed – 1. Newark with a win. 2. Tulsa with a win and Newark loss (Tie Breaker, Conference Record).

:arrow: 2nd seed – Whoever did not get the first seed, Newark or Tulsa

:arrow: 3rd seed – 1. Oakland with a win. 2. Pennsylvania with an Oakland loss (Tie Breaker, Head to Head)

:arrow: 4th seed – The team that did not get the 3rd seed. Oakland or Pennsylvania

:arrow: 5th seed – Lawrence owns this spot.

:arrow: 6th seed – 1. Texas with a win. 2. Vancouver with a win and a Texas loss.

That’s how we see it boys. UNOFFICIAL, for sure. Please post any errors or discrepancies that you find.

[Kozure]

biggest regular season game ever?

i likey.

[Vic Carucci]

GAME OF THE WEEKWest Virginia (14-1-0, PR 101) at Norfolk (13-2-0, PR 97)Norfolk is favored by 1 points.46 degrees, 3mph, Fair.

MARQUEE MATCHUPTexas (9-6-0, PR 76) at Tulsa (12-3-0, PR 92)Tulsa is favored by 10.5 points.50 degrees, 9mph, Rain.

WORTH WATCHINGLos Angeles (7-7-1, PR 73) at Anchorage (10-5-0, PR 80)Anchorage is favored by 6.5 points.68 degrees, 0mph, Fair.

WORTH WATCHINGIowa City (10-5-0, PR 83) at Montreal (6-9-0, PR 72)Iowa City is favored by 2.5 points.38 degrees, 10mph, Fair.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDOakland (10-5-0, PR 84) at Reno (6-9-0, PR 67)Oakland is favored by 5.5 points.25 degrees, 9mph, Fair.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDCleveland (10-5-0, PR 87) at Wichita (5-10-0, PR 67)Cleveland is favored by 7 points.46 degrees, 4mph, Fair.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDFresno (4-10-1, PR 66) at Portland (12-3-0, PR 95)Portland is favored by 14 points.54 degrees, 12mph, Rain.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDNewark (13-2-0, PR 97) at Orlando (4-11-0, PR 62)Newark is favored by 8 points.51 degrees, 2mph, Fair.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDLouisiana (5-10-0, PR 64) at Murfreesboro (9-6-0, PR 84)Murfreesboro is favored by 11.5 points.51 degrees, 0mph, Fair.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDVermont (4-11-0, PR 63) at Lawrence (11-4-0, PR 91)Lawrence is favored by 14 points.28 degrees, 2mph, Fair.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDChicago (5-10-0, PR 66) at Hartford (5-10-0, PR 70)Hartford is favored by 5 points.36 degrees, 8mph, Rain.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDHouston (7-8-0, PR 73) at St. Louis (5-10-0, PR 64)Houston is favored by 1.5 points.33 degrees, 11mph, Fair.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDGeorgia (7-8-0, PR 74) at Little Rock (4-11-0, PR 62)Georgia is favored by 3 points.58 degrees, 4mph, Fair.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDDakota (4-11-0, PR 59) at Pennsylvania (9-6-0, PR 79)Pennsylvania is favored by 11.5 points.68 degrees, 0mph, Fair.

REGIONALLY TELEVISEDSalt Lake City (3-12-0, PR 59) at Vancouver (9-6-0, PR 79)Vancouver is favored by 11.5 points.68 degrees, 0mph, Fair.

DON'T BOTHERMadison (5-10-0, PR 62) at Lansing (2-13-0, PR 55)Madison is favored by 0.5 points.68 degrees, 0mph, Fair.

[Vic Carucci]

TEAM	ROSTER	OFF	DEF	REC	WINPCT	OPPREC	OPPPCT	PWR RTG	LAST RNK	RTG CHG
West Virginia Beasts	81.7	89.9	88.1	14-1-0	0.933	107-117-1	0.478	100.98	1	+0.48
Norfolk Vipers	80.7	89.0	72.5	13-2-0	0.867	118-107-0	0.524	97.42	2	-2.49
Newark Bulldogs	88.6	96.4	79.7	13-2-0	0.867	98-127-0	0.436	96.77	3	+1.74
Portland Seals	84.8	89.4	87.8	12-3-0	0.800	107-115-3	0.482	95.04	4	+1.46
Tulsa TigerHawks	79.3	91.6	67.4	12-3-0	0.800	105-120-0	0.467	91.50	6	+1.07
Lawrence Phantoms	78.1	101.1	59.9	11-4-0	0.733	117-108-0	0.520	91.20	5	+0.29
Cleveland Clawz	74.6	78.1	77.3	10-5-0	0.667	123-102-0	0.547	87.01	8	+1.68
Oakland Assassins	73.7	83.6	62.8	10-5-0	0.667	113-112-0	0.502	84.04	7	-1.58
Murfreesboro Mules	85.8	83.3	69.9	9-6-0	0.600	117-106-2	0.524	83.95	9	-1.34
Iowa City Snipe Hunters	79.2	74.3	65.3	10-5-0	0.667	113-111-1	0.504	83.32	11	+1.63
Anchorage Lynx	79.5	72.7	68.9	10-5-0	0.667	95-127-3	0.429	80.34	13	+0.29
Pennsylvania Lions	69.2	79.6	70.9	9-6-0	0.600	105-118-2	0.471	79.49	10	-2.29
Vancouver Killer Whales	79.3	72.6	74.2	9-6-0	0.600	104-121-0	0.462	79.28	12	-2.09
Texas Trojans	72.8	75.3	67.8	9-6-0	0.600	94-131-0	0.418	76.37	15	+2.30
Georgia Generals	80.9	78.3	68.4	7-8-0	0.467	109-116-0	0.484	74.33	16	+1.27
Houston Renegades	68.3	77.2	58.7	7-8-0	0.467	118-105-2	0.529	73.48	14	-1.33
Los Angeles Matadors	76.6	63.4	79.9	7-7-1	0.500	103-120-2	0.462	73.37	17	+1.49
Montreal Firebirds	83.2	74.9	69.9	6-9-0	0.400	116-108-1	0.518	72.45	18	+0.96
Hartford Whalers	80.6	65.6	57.7	5-10-0	0.333	137-88-0	0.609	69.59	19	-0.94
Reno Wolfpack	72.4	68.8	62.5	6-9-0	0.400	106-119-0	0.471	67.25	20	-1.83
Wichita Outlaws	73.1	67.9	60.2	5-10-0	0.333	122-103-0	0.542	66.73	25	+2.13
Fresno Warthogs	88.2	68.1	68.5	4-10-1	0.300	112-111-2	0.502	66.12	24	+1.52
Chicago Crusaders	56.2	63.0	55.5	5-10-0	0.333	134-90-1	0.598	65.90	21	-1.88
St. Louis Cardinals	70.2	60.3	69.5	5-10-0	0.333	110-113-2	0.493	64.22	22	-1.29
Louisiana Voodoo	67.0	58.1	65.5	5-10-0	0.333	113-110-2	0.507	63.57	23	-1.40
Vermont Mountaineers	74.2	68.2	62.1	4-11-0	0.267	115-110-0	0.511	62.69	26	-0.55
Orlando Pirates	64.5	68.5	61.7	4-11-0	0.267	118-107-0	0.524	62.28	28	+1.90
Little Rock Toads	64.8	65.8	60.3	4-11-0	0.267	120-105-0	0.533	61.99	30	+1.99
Madison Demons	72.5	51.2	65.8	5-10-0	0.333	106-117-2	0.476	61.57	27	-0.72
Dakota Spirit	65.1	71.9	64.0	4-11-0	0.267	95-128-2	0.427	59.11	31	+0.34
Salt Lake City Stallions	68.8	58.5	65.5	3-12-0	0.200	121-104-0	0.538	58.83	29	-1.23
Lansing Ogres	65.9	63.9	61.9	2-13-0	0.133	114-109-2	0.511	54.73	32	-1.51

[Trivia Bytes]

West Virginia Beast (14-1) at Norfolk (13-2)

Is this the biggest game ever in the last week of a regular season? “You betcha”, as Sarah Palin would gaggle.

To date, the IFL most famous season ending game was in 2017 when the 13-2 Montreal met division foe 12-3Cleveland. Cleveland thrashed the Firebirds 31-0 in that game. That win tied them with Montreal in overall record but it still fell short of the division crown by a tie breaker. Cleveland also lost in the subsequent wild card game against Murfreesboro and Montreal went on to face Pennsylvania in the Imperial Bowl. You should recall that Pennsylvania and Mr. Hamilton won that one.

But do we have a dandy in store for us on this Sunday. The AC-East division crown looks to be on the line. West Virginia can clinch with a win but if they lose the tie breaker system begins its nasty wheels a rolling.

1. Tiebreaker 1: head-to-head … this is a draw.
2. Tiebreaker 2: conference record … this is also a draw.
3. Tiebreaker 3: common games W/L % … another draw.
4. Tiebreaker 4: strength of victory (the W/L% of the teams they beat in the regular season)

It is on this tie breaker that Norfolk’s stronger schedule nudges the Vipers over the Beasts. If Norfolk wins on Sunday, the Beasts and the Vipers would have lost to the same teams … to each other and to the heavy duty Newark Bulldogs. Norfolk got its schedule advantage when it drew Murfreesboro in the South and Portland in the West, both teams turning out to be the division champs. West Virginia played Houston and Anchorage.

What is on the line is a division crown, and a 1st seed with home field advantage. The loser is relegated to be the visiting team in a wild card game.

Just how significant of a factor has a 1st round bye been in the history of the league? Well, here is a history lesson.

There have been 32 team appearances in the Imperial Bowl since 2003.

:arrow: 13 of those teams were the first seed with home field advantage
:arrow: 8 of those teams were the second seed with a 1st round bye
66% of 1st round byes make it to the BIG ONE!

:arrow: 9 of those teams were division champs hosting a wild card
:arrow: 2 of those teams were a wild card entry (Texas in 2015 and Vermont in 2010)

Now, of the teams above, what was the break down of the Imperial Bowl Champs?

:arrow: 8 of the 13 first round seeds claimed the crown.
:arrow: 3 of the 8 second round seed claimed the crown.

69% of the first round byes claimed the championship.

:arrow: 4 of the 8 division champions hosting a wild card went on to win.
:arrow: 1 of the 2 wild card entries went on to claim all of the marbles – Vermont 2010.

There you have it … we think a 1st round bye does have a great deal of significance and that the home field advantage is even more significant.

So how significant is the West Virginia – Norfolk game. We think that both teams want that home field advantage and not that wild card entry!

Norfolk must rebound after the loss to Newark last week.

Injuries: Of note, Norfolk has a couple of injured starters return to action … FB Marshall Richards and DE Johnnie Lincoln. The Beasts are as healthy as a horse.

Passing Attack: Of note for the Beasts is the midseason acquisition of the league’s highest rated receiver in Bernard Strong. He seems to have found his stride and is a real threat to an already solid receiving corps. The Vipers feature the 3rd highest rated receiver and 2nd fastest man in WR Darrell Logan. They are not as deep as the Beasts but have capable hands down field. The signal callers are both first rate with experience at the helm: 14 year vet Deron Markel for WV and 11 year vet Jon Cavazos for Norfolk. Markel is having the better year so far.

Running Attack: Norfolk has a two headed monster in Tatum/ Fleming and sport the 2nd rated rushing attack in the league. WV running attack has been quiet but very effective – they have the 6th rated rushing attack.

Defense: WV defense is incredible … best in points per game, 2nd best in yardage allowed. Norfolk isn’t too shabby either but not near as blingy as WV … 7th in points per game and 13th in yardage allowed.

Earlier in the year, West Virginia cruised to a 34-21 victory at home. They visit Viper stadium on Sunday and are 1 point underdogs. Home field advantage may play a role ... but in their history, that advantage seems to be moot. The game will be brutal, entertaining and will take its place in IFL history as the first time the 2nd and 3rd highest rated teams meet at the end of the season. What a way to end the season!!

[Jave]

Bleh...this sounds like NFL.com or ESPN constantly focusing on the Patriots or Jets. They take the 2 best teams and just spam us with how great they are and what a big game it is. You don't need to just look at the game that has the teams with the best records for it to be a huge game.

Take week 13 for example. The GOTW was me and Jester. But since we weren't the teams with the 2 best records we got kicked down to just a marquee matchup. The game turned out to be fucking epic with the Phantoms kicking us all over the field and us mounting one of the greatest comebacks in IFL history.
From a personal standpoint being GOTW is meaningless, but the point is, look for the games that have divisional or personal meaning rather then focusing just on the win/loss records. Both these teams are a sho-in for the playoffs so this game is meaningless. I wouldn't be surprised if one or both of them play the "hide the starters" game. There's a ton of great fucking matchup's in our league, just look for em

Don't get me wrong, I thought the research on the %'s for winning the championship is extremely significant, however if it was me, I wouldn't take the chance on losing one or more starters for a game that has no meaning on actually getting IN the playoffs. This game is finicky, what if you play for the win and lose your QB for 3 weeks trying to gain home field throughout? How would ya feel about that?

[Trivia Bytes]

See poll above ... we are interested in the reaction to Jave's comments.

[Matt]

jave, your argument is ludicrous.
are you saying that I should rest my guys because I'm in the playoffs anyway?

hell no!! I want any meaningful NC playoff game to be played on my homefield where there is supported evidence that there's an advantage to having the games played there.

the WV v NFK game is of epic proportions. You win, and you get homefield. You lose and you're on the road the next week.

[Matt]

the fact that almost 70% of teams with a 1st rnd bye make it to the dance is enough of a stat to make me jump out my pants

[JesterBlaze]

Jave you crazy man!

Take week 13 for example. The GOTW was me and Jester. But since we weren't the teams with the 2 best records we got kicked down to just a marquee matchup. The game turned out to be fucking epic with the Phantoms kicking us all over the field and us mounting one of the greatest comebacks in IFL history.

This was in hindsight. Odds are 16:1 that NFK/WV is not the best football game when we look back after week 17 but for now they're certainly the game to focus on, which is all that GOTW is.

the point is, look for the games that have divisional or personal meaning rather then focusing just on the win/loss records.

divisional meaning: check
personal meaning: check

and for a cherry on top: win/loss records


Long live Trivia Bytes!!

[JesterBlaze]

hell no!! I want any meaningful NC playoff game to be played on my homefield where there is supported evidence that there's an advantage to having the games played there.

There's also history of NC East Wild Card teams knocking of NC East #1 seeds on their way to winning it all. :shoot:

[Mike17]

Who rests starters? Play 'em till they die

[Matt]

There's also history of NC East Wild Card teams knocking of NC East #1 seeds on their way to winning it all. :shoot:

That ain't happening this year JB.

[r00k]

haha ... of all years, this will not happen on the Viper side of the ball.

I did rest some starters including Cavazos last year ... but I had the division locked up by tie breaker as well as the first seed. So, it made sense, right. WRONG ... Cavazos gets knocked out in playoff game against WV. I half way blame that happening because I rested Cavazos. That will never happen again for the QB position. I will get out that whip (like Mike has it displayed in his post.)

Now I can't speak for Kozure but if he wants to rest a player or two or three, that would be no skin off my back.

[r00k]

Besides ... Norfolk-WV is just not a rivalry ... it is and has been a war :shoot: (with friendly borders only at times when we are not playing)

There are certain franchises that I really really enjoy playing ... WV and Kozure are on that very short list. I would be disappointed if K-man did not feel the same way.