Week 2 Discussion

[dberner30]

An extremely good half defensively, and nowhere near one you can count on having, especially on the next half - making lightning strike twice in a row.



A much more realistic half as one would expect, if not slightly high on the scoring.

I don't see anything odd here other than the 1st half being extremely out of the ordinary good for the Outlaws defensively.

im with ya on the point that the 2nd half wasnt out of the realm of possibility. It was a defensive struggle and my offense did okay in the 1st half and very poor in the 2nd half...LRK was the exact opposite. my take is those outcomes are just as poor in terms of the game when you do super well like that....the game is inconsistent. i know teams are inconsistent but not usually from quarter to quarter or half to half...

im gonna look some more at the defensive alignments and that nasty looking adjustments screen...LRK didnt go vertical in the 2nd half...it was a similar game plan across the entire game for them...the other thing was the in those last couple of scores LRK got great help on penalties which werent a big factor earlier inthe game...are we seeing more penalties in late game situations...thoughts anyone...

[sovstar]

Wichita Whiners

I'll get Suicane to make you a new logo in MS Paint.

[dberner30]

Wichita Whiners

I'll get Suicane to make you a new logo in MS Paint.

nah. just looking to figure out the issues big dog...its either a game engine issue that cant be fixed or its shitty game planning which can...just looking for feedback on the issue from those of you who are much smarter....

whats odd about the deal (and screams not a game engine issue) is that some of my teams dont have these issues. I cant get a handle on the differences...is it league settings...is it opponent game plans...is it cohesion in the late games...do coaches have a hidden half time adjustments rating...if i can put a finger on the causes i can fix them.

[JesterBlaze]

I think every play is just a "roll of the dice". If you roll dice 10 times in a row and get a low number each time it doesn't mean that there's a "low wind" blowing that day or that it's a "defensive day". It just means that the dice happened to be low for 10 throws and the odds do not state that any additional throws should also be low numbers, rather they're more likely to be high numbers due to the law of averages.

It seems like almost every game Tobias Stanfield will hit on 8/9 or 9/10 and then miss 4/5 or 5/6. Just the way the game (of football, not just FOF) goes.

You stated that you're looking for consistency quarter to quarter and half to half when football doesn't even guarantee consistency from play to play (and even on a single play at least one player is usually making a mistake and if you count on him on said play then the result probably won't be in your favor). How many 70+ yard drives end in a turnover? How many times does 3rd and 20+ become a 1st due to defensive penalty and then a long drive results from said 1st. Good CBs are known to have a "short memory" for this reason: the last play has no bearing on the next (outside of "setups").

I've been an NFL fan, defensive football fan, and stat junkie for over 20 years and thought soooo many times growing up that at halftime a team was on the way to breaking records only to see the 2nd half balance things out.

[JesterBlaze]

FWIW - It could be your gameplan as well but only you can figure that out.

[roadrash]

Wichita Whiners

I'll get Suicane to make you a new logo in MS Paint.

Between the whiners and the thunderchickens, I do have an easy division. . .

Wait! . .. what is that other team again?

[dberner30]

always happy to see the law of averages cited...but ponder this...

if you flip a coin 49 times and it comes up heads what is the chance on the 50th flip that it will be heads....

[George W Bush]

always happy to see the law of averages cited...but ponder this...

if you flip a coin 49 times and it comes up heads what is the chance on the 50th flip that it will be heads....

1/2

[JesterBlaze]

if you flip a coin 49 times and it comes up heads what is the chance on the 50th flip that it will be heads....

100% as I believe this to be a trick coin.

[dberner30]

1/2

excellent answer...the law of averages crowd usually thinks much higher... i have gotten 90% or so as a guess.

[George W Bush]

excellent answer...the law of averages crowd usually thinks much higher... i have gotten 90% or so as a guess.

probably Jave

[JesterBlaze]

if you flip a coin 49 times and it comes up heads what is the chance on the 50th flip that it will be heads....

more appropriate to this discussion: if you flip a coin 49 times and it comes up heads all 49 times then what're the odds that it'll come up heads another 49 times in a row?

Interestingly enough I hear there're 125-135 non-special-teams plays in an NFL football game so 49 is not far off from a half.